Arabica Coffee 4/5 May '26 (XFK26)
Arabica Coffee 4/5 Futures Market News and Commentary
July arabica coffee (KCN26) on Friday closed down -5.45 (-1.81%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) closed down -9 (-0.24%).
Coffee prices fell from 4-week highs on Friday and settled lower. Â Expectations of a bumper Brazil coffee crop are weighing on arabica coffee prices. Â
On Tuesday, arabica coffee fell to a 7-week low amid expectations of a record Brazilian coffee crop. Â On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected a record 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop of 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina's forecast of 75.4 million bags (+15.5% y/y). Â On March 12, StoneX raised its Brazil 2026/27 coffee production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from a November estimate of 70.7 million bags. Â Meanwhile, StoneX projected the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025, the biggest surplus in 6 years.
Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices. Â On April 3, Vie... Read more
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