Morning Strength from Corn Market

Row crop futures are mostly trading red this morning, with corn outshining the market on 1-5 cent gains. Last week, nearby corn futures extended the bounce by double digits on Friday with gains of 1.7% to 2.2%. December prices rallied 14 1/4 cents on the day for a weekly gain of 41 cents. Sep options expired at the close, with the $6.70 and above calls worthless. Wednesday is First Notice Day for Sep corn. USDA saw the week’s cash ethanol markets range $2.38 to $2.65/gal regionally. Prices were generally 12 to 20c/gal higher wk/wk. Corn oil cash markets were within 5 cents/lb of last week, though mostly higher and averaged 72.43 to 77 c/lb regionally. 

Weekly CFTC data had managed money spec traders as 28,376 contracts more net long through the week that ended 8/23. That came mostly via short covering, with an extra 7.9k new longs added. Commercial traders reduced their end user long hedges by 19.6k contracts while they buffed their short by 25.2k contracts. That extended their net short by nearly 44.8k contracts to 428,404 contracts. 

Pro Farmer finished their 2022 corn crop tour with a national average yield estimate of 168.1 bpa +/-1%. Their production estimate is then for a 13.759 bbu crop, compared to the August USDA figure of 14.359 billion.  Pro Farmer’s August corn yield has been below the eventual USDA final yield 16 out of the last 20 years and 4 of the last five, prompting some caution on the Sunday night open.

The EU reduced their corn production estimate from 65.8 MMT to 59.3 MMT citing the prolonged heat and dryness. 

Sep 22 Corn  closed at $6.68 3/4, up 11 1/4 cents, currently up 1 cents 

Nearby Cash   was $7.17 5/8 on Friday, up 10 1/2 cents,

Dec 22 Corn  closed at $6.64 1/4, up 14 1/4 cents, currently up 5 3/4 cents

Mar 23 Corn  closed at $6.69 3/4, up 13 3/4 cents, currently up 5 3/4 cents

New Crop Cash   was $6.35 3/8 on Friday, up 15 1/8 cents,