Double Digit Gains in Corn Market

Overnight action in the corn market led the board higher with conviction for Tuesday. There was a slight gap at the open, which was not filled before prices took off towards double digit gains of +15 cents for Tuesday. Speculative buying during this week’s “on the road” crop surveys led the corn market a nickel to 7 1/2 cents higher on Monday. Preliminary open interest rose 5,097 contracts, suggesting net new buying interest. 

According to the NASS weekly Crop Progress report, 97% of the national corn crop had reached the silking stage, and 75% was in the dough stage as of 8/21. NASS saw 31% of the crop dented and 4% mature. That compares to 35% and 4% on average. As for conditions, 57% was good/ex – matching last week, for a 342 Brugler500 score – down 5 points from last week due to deterioration in the low end. 

Weekly Inspections data had 740,508 MT of corn shipments for the week that ended 8/18. That was up from 540k MT last week, but 26k MT below the same week last year. Mexico, Japan, and China were all shipped more than 100k MT. Accumulated corn exports reached 53.821 MMT through 8/18, which was 17.7% behind last year’s pace. 

The PF Tour recorded a 118 bpa average yield for South Dakota, well below the 151.54 they estimated for that state in the 2021 drought year.  The Tour estimate for Ohio was 174.17 bpa vs. 185.06 last year. Keep in mind that these are for the routes run, and not what they expect for the state as a whole. As an example the Tour undershot the final USDA yield for Ohio by 8 bpa last year (NASS at 193). 

Sep 22 Corn  closed at $6.33 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents, currently up 15 3/4 cents

Nearby Cash   was $6.85 on Monday, up 7 1/4 cents,

Dec 22 Corn  closed at $6.29, up 5 3/4 cents, currently up 15 1/4 cents

Mar 23 Corn  closed at $6.36 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents, currently up 14 1/2 cents

New Crop Cash   was $5.96 on Monday, up 6 1/4 cents,