Beans Down 50 Cents

So far the Tuesday soy market is responding to USDA’s report with even sharper drops across the complex. Prices were down by 0.65% to 3.6% led by +200 point drops in soy oil going in. Currently beans are down by even sharper 50 cent / 3.5% losses. Meal prices are down $4.70 to $6.60/ton so far for midday. Front month soybean oil futures are trading 370 points in the red on +4% losses. The new cash average prices from USDA were, $13.35/bu for old crop – UNCH, $14.40/bu for new crop after a 30 cent decrease, $425 for old crop meal and 73 c/lb for old crop BO. 

Domestic old crop crush was lowered 10 mbu to 2.205 billion. Exports were left UNCH at 2.17 bbu. Seed and residual each had an offsetting 3 mbu swing, for a 10 mbu higher carryout of 215. New crop soybean’s production fell by 135 mbu after the reduced June 30th acreage. 22/23 crush was reduced 10 to 2.245 bbu and exports were 65 mbu lower to 2.135 bbu. New crop stocks were cut 50 mbu from last month at 230 million, due to the smaller production estimate. 

USDA estimated Brazil’s old crop soy output at 126 MMT, UNCH from June. Brazil’s export figure was cut from June to 81 MMT. CONAB recently figured the output as 124.05 after a 220k MT cut. Abiove estimated the 21/22 soy crop in Brazil as 125.8 MMT, up 300k MT from their prior estimate. That comes with 43.8 MMT of crush and 76.8 MMT of exports. 

Global soybean stocks are estimated at 88.7 MMT for 21/22. New crop carryout is a bit looser at 99.6 MMT, but down from June’s 100.5. 

Jul 22 Soybeans  are at $16.05 3/4, down 35 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  is at $15.09, down 47 1/4 cents,

Aug 22 Soybeans  are at $14.72, down 50 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans  are at $13.54 1/4, down 50 3/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  is at $13.06 1/8, down 49 3/4 cents,