July NY world sugar #11 (SBN22) on Thursday closed up +0.28 (+1.51%), and Aug London white sugar #5 (SWQ22) closed up +2.80 (+0.51%).
Sugar prices Thursday climbed to new 1-week highs. Â Sugar prices are moving higher from reduced sugar production in Brazil. Â Unica on Tuesday reported that Brazil 2022/23 Center-South sugar production through Jun 15 fell -23.6% y/y to 7.193 MMT.
On Monday, NY sugar fell to a 3-3/4 month low, and London sugar slid to a 6-week low. Â Concern that Brazil's sugar producers will ramp up export selling weighed on prices after the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) fell to a 4-1/2 month low against the dollar. Â The weaker real encourages export selling by Brazil's sugar producers.
The outlook for larger sugar crop sizes in India and Thailand is bearish for sugar prices. Â On April 15, the ISMA raised India's 2021/22 sugar production estimate to 35 MMT from 33.3 MMT, up +12.2% y/y, and said sugar exports would jump to a record 9 MMT. Â India is the world's second-largest sugar producer. Â The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) recently reported that India's 2021/22 sugar production from Oct 1-May 15 rose +14.4% y/y to 34.88 MMT. Â Meanwhile, Thailand's Office of the Cane & Sugar Board estimated that Thailand would export 7 MMT of sugar this (2021/22) marketing year. Â Thailand is the world's second-largest sugar exporter.
A bearish factor for sugar was the projection from Conab on April 27 for Brazil 2022/23 sugar production to increase by +15% y/y to 40.3 MMT as the crop recovers from the past season's adverse weather. Â Also, the USDA's FAS on April 22 projected Brazil's 2022/23 sugar production would climb +2.9% y/y to 36.37 MMT and that 2022/23 Brazil sugar exports would increase by +3.7% y/y to 26.6 MMT.
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