Int’l News Keeping Wheat Firm

Bullish news from the global stage has the wheat market mixed mostly higher as the other CBOT row crops are fading into the weekend. KC wheat is fractionally mixed at midday. SRW prices are 6 3/4 to 7 1/2 cents higher so far. Spring wheat prices are fractionally to 3 1/2 cents in the black for the front months. 

StatsCan reported March wheat stocks were 10.103 MMT. That was down from 16.491 MMT reported during last year, and within the 9.54 -10.996 MMT expected. Durum specific stocks were 1.467 MMT as of 3/31, also tighter than last year but above the trade average guess going in. 

The 7-day QPF from NOAA has rain in the forecast for the South-Central Canadian Prairie, with Ontario forecasted to get as much as 2 1/2” accumulated. The system of moisture stays South, stretching from North Central NE Westward into Eastern MT, and into Western WI. MN is forecasted to get +2” through the next week. Notably the drier TX panhandle’s precip tops out at 1/2" through the next week, with Eastern TX and OK drying up. Traders are eyeing heat forecasts for France, as experts point to an already 30% precip deficit for Jan-May 10th. 

The Ukrainian Agribusiness Club reported 5.7m HA of spring grains had been planted through 5/2. That is up from 3.6m HA last week but compares to ~8m from the same point last year. UN’s FAO trimmed their outlook for 22/23 global wheat output by 2 MMT to 782 MMT – citing U.S. dryness in Southern HRW territory and the war in the Ukraine. The FAO also upped their 21/22 carryout by 5.2 MMT to 856 MMT for all grains. Indian wheat was the largest mover from the UN’s April forecast. 

Jul 22 CBOT Wheat  is at $11.12 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $10.51, up 5 5/8 cents,

Jul 22 KCBT Wheat  is at $11.75 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $11.29 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents,

Jul 22 MGEX Wheat  is at $12.09 1/4, down 1/2 cent,