Soybean Bulls March Boldly Into USDA Report, Expecting Tighter World Stocks

Soy markets are trading 10 to 12 cents higher ahead of today’s WASDE supply/demand updates, with the buyers quite confident that the report won’t threaten their position. Soybean futures firmed into the close, but old crop was still double digits lower on Tuesday. Yesterday’s soymeal market bounced from midday losses and ended the day $1.30 to $3.10/ton higher. Soybean oil prices also firmed some from the 2+ cent losses at midday to 179 to 199 point losses going home. 

Going into the Feb WASDE report, analysts surveyed are estimating the U.S. soybean carryout at 315.7 mbu on average. That would be a 34.3 mbu drop from the Jan figure if realized, with the consensus being larger crush and larger old crop exports than previously thought. For South American output the trade is looking for USDA to cut between 1.5 MMT and 12.5 MTM from Brazil’s output and 0.5 to 4 MMT from Argentina. The average estimate is to see 133.5 MMT for Brazil and 44.3 MMT for Argentina. Private estimates for Brazil have gone as low as 125 MMT in a game of “can you top that”. 

Official Census data showed 8.108 MMT (279.9 mbu) of US soybeans were shipped during December. That was down from the 10.6 MMT shipped in November 2021 and from 10.44 MMT in Dec 2020. The MY’s total soybean export program reached 31.418 MMT (1.154 bbu) through December, compared with weekly Inspections data for 37.643 MMT as of 2/3. 

Mar 22 Soybeans  closed at $15.69, down 12 3/4 cents,  up 10 ½ this morning

Nearby Cash  was $15.22 ½ on Tuesday, down 12 3/4 cents,

May 22 Soybeans  closed at $15.72 1/2, down 13 3/4 cents, up 9 ½ this morning

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.13, down 3 cents, up 10 ½ this morning

New Crop Cash  was $13.61 ¼ on Tuesday, down 2 1/2 cents,