Bean Rally Continues

Soybeans continued their rally to new contract highs on Monday, adding another 25 1/2 to 28 1/4 cents to the upside. New crop beans were also 20 1/4 cents higher. Meal futures ended the session $8.90 to $10.90/ton higher. BO futures were steady on the day, after fading from midday gains the front months closed within 3 points of UNCH. Dalian No2 Soybean Prices have resumed trading, with some catching up to do after last week’s US rally. 

The USDA reported a large soybean sale of 507k MT to unknown this morning under the daily system. That was split 249k MT old crop and 258k MT for new crop delivery. Weekly FAS data showed soybean shipments were 1.218 MMT for the week that ended 2/3. That was down 198k wk/wk and 688k MT from the same week last season. China was the week’s top destination with 765,329 MT shipped to the PRC last week. The season’s total export program to all destinations reached 37.643 MMT as of 2/3. That is 67.4% of the Jan WASDE forecasted total.  

Going into the Feb WASDE report, analysts surveyed are estimating the U.S. soybean carryout at 315.7 mbu on average. That would be a 34.3 mbu drop from the Jan figure if realized. For South American output the trade is looking for USDA to cut between 1.5 MMT and 12.5 MTM from Brazil’s output and 0.5 to 4 MMT from Argentina. The average estimate is to see 133.5 MMT for Brazil and 443 MMT for Argentina. 

Mar 22 Soybeans  closed at $15.81 3/4, up 28 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $15.35 1/4, up 28 cents,

May 22 Soybeans  closed at $15.86 1/4, up 28 3/4 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.16, up 20 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $13.64 3/4, up 20 cents,