Soybean Futures On Both Sides of Unchanged in Early Tuesday Activity

Overnight trading has the soybeans 2 cents on either side of UNCH this morning. Monday’s session extended the rally for a 5th day. Futures prices settled with 16 to 20 1/2 cent gains. Soymeal futures ended the first trade day of the week with $7 to $7.70/ton gains. BO futures were 39 to 45 points lower by the end of the session after sharp early gains led by palm oil disappeared. 

Analyst estimates for December US soy crush average 197.7 mbu. That would be a record if realized in this afternoon’s USDA report. The full range of estimates is from 197.3 and 198.4 mbu. Soy oil stocks are expected to be 2.565b lbs., the largest surplus since April 2020. 

Weekly Export Inspections data had 1.411 MMT of soybean shipments for the week that ended 1/27. That was up from 1.35 MMT last week, but down 497k MT yr/yr. The USDA added 82,015 MT of bean exports to past reports, which brought the MYTD export to 36.276 MMT. At the same time last year, 47.468 MMT had been shipped. 

Safras and Mercados reported Brazil’s soy harvest at 11.3% complete. That compares to 1.4% harvest at the same point last year. Mato Grosso was listed at 31.8% harvested, compared to 16% average and 4.7% last year according to IMEA. The Ag Rural reduced their projection of Brazilian soy output to 128.5 MMT, compared to their prior estimate of 133.4 MMT. 

Strategie Grains estimated the EU rapeseed output at 18.2 MMT. That was up 7.4% from last year’s dryness affected crop, and 200k MT above their prior estimate. 

Mar 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.90 1/2, up 20 1/2 cents, down 1 ¾ this morning

Nearby Cash  was $14.43 7/8 on Monday, up 18 5/8 cents,

May 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.95 1/4, up 20 cents, down 1 this morning

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $13.67, up 15 1/2 cents, up ½ this morning

New Crop Cash  was $13.10 on Monday, up 14 7/8 cents,