Soybean Futures Down Double Digits as Weather Moderates

Soybean futures start the short week of trade with double digit overnight losses. Improved rainfall and moderating temps in South America take credit, pressuring meal as well. On Friday, soybean futures closed 7 1/2 to 9 1/2 cents in the red. Soymeal closed $3.230 to $4.20 weaker. BO was firm, within 7 points of UNCH in the front months. USDA saw the weekly B100 cash price at $5.18/gal for the week that ended 1/14. That was above $5/gal last week. 

Commitment of Traders data showed soybean spec traders extended their net long during the week that ended 1/11. The 7,960 contract stronger spec position was fueled by net new buying into the USDA reports and left managed money 106,879 contracts net long. Commercial bean traders added 17,710 shorts and lifted 1.8k long hedges during the week that ended 1/11. 

Chinese customs data showed 8.866 MMT of beans were brought in during December. Their 2021 annual imports were 96.52 MMT, down 3.8 MMT from 2020. Poor crush margins and increased wheat feeding were cited as reasons.

Ahead of the NOPA crush data, analysts are on average expecting 185 mbu of soybeans were processed in December, vs. 183.2 mbu last year. The full range of estimates is 181.7 to 188.7 mbu. The average estimate for BO stocks is 1.892 billion lbs., which would be just slightly above November’s 1.832 billion.  

The International Grains Council revised their soybean production forecast to 368 MMT in their January figure. That was 12 MMT above their prior November forecast. Stocks are forecasted at 52 MMT, which was 8 MTM tighter.  SAFRAS joined other firms in cutting projected Brazilian soybean production, taking their number to 132.3 MMT. 

Jan 22 Soybeans  closed at $13.56 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents, down 16 ½ this morning

Nearby Cash  was $13.27 1/8 on Friday, down 7 3/4 cents,

Mar 22 Soybeans  closed at $13.69 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents, down 16 ¼ this morning

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $12.93, down 11 1/2 cents, down 13 this morning

New Crop Cash  was $12.34 5/8 on Friday, down 10 7/8 cents,