Arch Capital's Q4 2025 Earnings: What to Expect

With a market cap of $33.8 billion, Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) is a global provider of insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products operating across the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. It serves clients through a wide range of specialty insurance and reinsurance solutions distributed via independent brokers.

The Pembroke, Bermuda-based company is set to announce its fiscal Q4 2025 results after the market closes on Monday, Feb. 9. Ahead of this event, analysts forecast ACGL to report an adjusted EPS of $2.42, a rise of 7.1% from $2.26 in the year-ago quarter. It has surpassed Wall Street's earnings estimates in the last four quarters. 

For fiscal 2025, analysts expect the property and casualty insurer to report an adjusted EPS of $9.20, down marginally from $9.28 in fiscal 2024. However, adjusted EPS is anticipated to rise 2.8% year-over-year to $9.46 in fiscal 2026.

Shares of Arch Capital have risen 3.4% over the past 52 weeks, lagging behind both the S&P 500 Index's ($SPX) 19.7% increase and the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF's (XLF) 16.8% return over the same period. 

Despite beating expectations with Q3 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.77 on Oct. 27, Arch Capital’s shares fell 1.4% the next day. Adjusted revenue came in at $4.72 billion, missing Street forecasts, while net premiums written declined 2.1% year-over-year to $3.96 billion and reinsurance net premiums fell 10.7%. 

Analysts' consensus view on ACGL stock is cautiously optimistic, with a "Moderate Buy" rating overall. Among 23 analysts covering the stock, 10 recommend "Strong Buy," one has a "Moderate Buy," 10 "Holds," and two suggest "Strong Sell." The average analyst price target for Arch Capital is $107.10, suggesting a potential upside of 14.9% from current levels.