S&P Futures Climb as U.S. Government Shutdown Nears End, Fed Speak on Tap

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are trending up +0.35% this morning as optimism that the U.S. government shutdown is nearing an end boosted sentiment.

A record 43-day U.S. government shutdown is poised to end as soon as today after the Senate passed a temporary funding bill. Reopening the government now depends on the House, which is set to return to Washington to consider the package. It would fund most parts of the government through January 30th and some agencies through September 30th. If approved, the bill will be sent to President Donald Trump, who has already voiced his support for the legislation.

Investor focus is also on remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed mixed. Paramount Skydance (PSKY) climbed over +9% and was among the top percentage gainers on the S&P 500 after the entertainment company issued above-consensus Q4 revenue guidance. Also, FedEx (FDX), often seen as a bellwether for the economy, rose more than +5% after the company projected that its profit this quarter would improve from a year ago. In addition, RealReal (REAL) jumped over +38% after the company posted better-than-expected Q3 results and raised its full-year revenue guidance. On the bearish side, Nvidia (NVDA) fell nearly -3% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after Japan’s SoftBank Group disclosed it had sold its entire stake in the chipmaker for $5.83 billion.

Once the government reopens, a wave of delayed economic reports is expected to be released, helping to clarify the outlook for interest rates. Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank stated that, based on historical precedent from the 2013 shutdown, September’s jobs report could be one of the first to be released, potentially within three business days of the government’s reopening.

In the absence of official data, investors have turned to alternative indicators, including a report from ADP released on Tuesday. That report showed that the private sector lost an average of 11,250 jobs per week during the four weeks ending October 25th. The figures suggest that the labor market weakened in the latter half of October compared with the earlier part of the month. Separately, economists at Goldman Sachs estimated that U.S. payrolls fell by 50,000 in October after accounting for employees participating in the government’s deferred resignation program.

Today, market participants will parse comments from a slew of Fed officials, including Williams, Paulson, Waller, Bostic, Miran, and Collins. Their remarks will be scrutinized closely amid the ongoing debate over whether another rate cut is needed at the December meeting.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 63.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 36.6% chance of no rate change at next month’s monetary policy meeting.

On the earnings front, notable companies such as Cisco (CSCO), TransDigm Group (TDG), and GlobalFoundries (GFS) are slated to release their quarterly results today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P 500 companies are on track to post a +14.6% increase in Q3 profits from a year earlier, nearly twice the level analysts had projected.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.088%, up +0.44%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +1.01% this morning, building on the previous session’s gains to hit a new record high. Bank and automobile stocks led the gains on Wednesday. Investor sentiment remained upbeat amid optimism about an imminent U.S. government reopening and rising expectations of a Fed rate cut next month. Investors also welcomed positive economic data from the region. Final data from the federal statistics office confirmed on Wednesday that Germany’s annual inflation rate eased slightly to 2.3% in October from 2.4% in the prior month. Separately, data showed that Italy’s monthly industrial production rebounded much more than expected in September. Meanwhile, European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday he expects global and domestic uncertainties to trim about 0.5% from France’s 2025 gross domestic product. In corporate news, SSE Plc (SSE.LN) jumped over +9% after announcing a 33 billion pound ($44.29 billion) five-year investment plan. Also, Infineon Technologies AG (IFX.D.DX) climbed more than +6% after the German chipmaker boosted its 2026 sales target for the AI power supply segment. At the same time, Edenred (EDEN.FP) slumped over -9% after the French voucher provider cut its 2026 profit guidance.

Germany’s CPI and Italy’s Industrial Production data were released today.

The German October CPI rose +0.3% m/m and +2.3% y/y, in line with expectations.

The Italian September Industrial Production rose +2.8% m/m and +1.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.5% m/m and -0.5% y/y.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.07%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.43%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed just below the flatline today as investors cautiously awaited a slew of key economic data from the country. Photovoltaic stocks led the declines on Wednesday. The People’s Bank of China said on Tuesday it would maintain an “appropriately loose” monetary policy, adjust cross-cyclical measures in line with shifts in the economic and financial environment, and closely monitor monetary policy developments at major global central banks. Goldman Sachs said the renewed focus on cross-cyclical adjustments signaled a less dovish stance than in the second-quarter report released in August, suggesting that monetary policy easing is likely to be delayed. The bank pushed back its forecast for a 10-basis-point policy rate reduction and a 50-basis-point reserve requirement ratio cut from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of 2026. Investor focus now turns to China’s October activity data, including retail sales and industrial production, due Friday, which will provide insight into the economy’s momentum at the start of the final quarter of the year. Economists anticipate that the data will likely highlight continued weakness in domestic demand. In corporate news, Foxconn Industrial rose about +0.8% after the world’s largest contract electronics maker posted a 17% increase in Q3 profit.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, tracking gains in U.S. equity futures amid optimism that the government shutdown is nearing its end. Metals and pharmaceutical stocks led the gains on Wednesday. A Reuters Tankan poll released on Wednesday showed that Japanese manufacturing confidence climbed in November to its highest level in nearly four years, driven by the electronics and auto sectors, which have been supported by a weaker yen and robust orders. Meanwhile, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued a new warning over currency fluctuations as the yen edged toward the key 155-per-dollar level, fueling concerns it could approach the zone where authorities last intervened in the market. Japan’s super-long government bond yields rose to nearly a one-month high on Wednesday, as investors expressed concerns over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s spending plans. A draft of Takaichi’s stimulus package seen by Reuters on Wednesday indicated that Japan’s government will vow to boost spending “without hesitation” to support an economy on the verge of emerging from stagnation. Although the draft does not specify the size of spending, it calls for “bold and strategic” investments in crisis management and growth sectors, suggesting the package will likely involve substantial fiscal spending. In corporate news, Mitsui Kinzoku soared over +23% after the maker of materials for AI-data centers boosted its full-year profit guidance. At the same time, SoftBank Group fell more than -3% after the technology investor disclosed it had sold its entire stake in Nvidia. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -9.86% to 28.90.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven stocks are moving higher in pre-market trading, with Nvidia (NVDA) rising over +1% and Alphabet (GOOGL) gaining nearly +1%.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) climbed over +4% in pre-market trading after forecasting faster sales growth over the next five years, fueled by strong demand for its data center products.

GlobalFoundries (GFS) rose more than +5% in pre-market trading after the chip manufacturer posted better-than-expected Q3 results and issued solid Q4 revenue guidance.

BILL Holdings (BILL) surged more than +12% in pre-market trading after Bloomberg reported that the business-payments company was exploring options, including a potential sale.

Fortinet (FTNT) fell about -0.6% in pre-market trading after Daiwa Securities downgraded the stock to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $80.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - November 12th

Cisco (CSCO), Transdigm (TDG), Manulife Financial (MFC), Flutter Entertainment (FLUT), Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME), Circle Internet (CRCL), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Pan American Silver NQ (PAAS), Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND), Tetra Tech (TTEK), ICL Israel Chemicals (ICL), Loar Holdings LLC (LOAR), HudBay Minerals (HBM), Legend Bio (LEGN), LandBridge Co LLC (LB), Grupo Aval (AVAL), Enlight Energy (ENLT), Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP), Dlocal (DLO), Boyd Group Services Inc (BGSI), Cellebrite (CLBT), Neptune Insurance (NP), Celcuity (CELC), Waterbridge Infrastructure LLC (WBI), Grail (GRAL), PagSeguro Digital (PAGS), Heartflow (HTFL), Firefly Aerospace (FLY), TIC Solutions (TIC), IHS Holding (IHS), Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN), Fidelis Insurance Holdings (FIHL), Ardent Health Partners LLC (ARDT), Alvotech (ALVO), Taseko Mines (TGB), Arcos Dorados (ARCO), Kodiak AI (KDK), Digi (DGII), Jumia Tech (JMIA).