As we discussed on June 16, Crude oil is still falling within a projected higher-degree wave C of an ABC decline, which is coming out of a wave B triangle pattern favoring additional downside in the coming weeks. CHECK THE PAST ARTICLE HERE.
The recent sell-off has already reached the March gap, where prices have temporarily stabilized. However, this support may only trigger a short-term corrective rebound before the broader downtrend resumes. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current recovery could unfold as wave 4, with the ideal resistance zone located between 74.00 and 80.00, where fresh selling pressure may emerge.
A more significant resistance area remains the June gap around 85.00. As long as crude oil stays below these resistance levels, the broader outlook favors continued weakness within wave C.
Only a sustained move back above the 90.00–92.00 area would invalidate the current bearish scenario and shift the outlook back to a stronger bullish trend.
For a detailed view and more analysis like this, you can watch our latest recording below, streamed on July 13:
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