August live cattle (LEQ26) futures on Friday fell $0.05 to $235.20 after hitting a 3.5-month low early in that session. For the week, prices were down $3.90. August feeder cattle (GFQ26) futures lost $1.55 to $354.60 and for the week were down $5.775. August lean hog futures on Friday rose $0.85 to $99.00 and for the week were up 25 cents.
Live Cattle Futures Markets Trapped in Price Downtrends
The cattle futures markets on Friday saw a pause amid mild technical selling pressure, with technically bearish weekly low closes setting the stage for follow-through chart-based price pressure early this week. Lower cash trade last week also pressured futures prices. Cash cattle trading turned active as of midday Friday, with the USDA reporting steers averaging $248.00 and heifers $247.96. That is well down from last week’s USDA-reported cash cattle trading average of $255.12.
Ongoing pressure from President Donald Trump’s administration to reduce retail beef prices has also weighed on futures market sentiment, while rising geopolitical uncertainties have shifted investor focus toward energy markets, which has likely at least somewhat dented consumer confidence.
On the supply side, the sharp decline in cash trade recently has further limited buyer interest in futures, despite historically tight fed cattle supplies. However, still-solid beef demand could limit further downside in futures if cash cattle markets stabilize in the coming weeks. The persistent New World screwworm threat and recent heat have offered little support.
Drovers reported this week that despite drought, labor unrest, and health threats at the border, cattle prices are holding in record territory. In his Q3 2026 outlook entitled, “Drought: Likely Dashing Hopes for Expansion,” Terrain Senior Animal Protein Analyst Dave Weaber forecasts fed cattle averaging $252–$258 per cwt in Q3 and Oklahoma City 450‑lb. steer calves climbing from about $500 to $555 cwt. “The forecasts remain record high because of still-strong beef demand and historically short supplies,” Weaber said, even as packer margins remain in the red at -$200 to -$300 per head and slaughter runs 2% to 4% below last year.
Lean Hog Futures Bulls Remain in Control
The lean hog (HEQ26) futures market posted a decent rebound Friday after price pressure on Thursday. Bulls are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart.
The latest CME lean hog index is up 37 cents to $92.35. Today’s projected CME index price is up 34 cents at $92.69. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $96.92.
Wholesale and cash hog fundamentals have turned supportive in tandem, led by BLT-season strength in bellies. Sustained follow-through will be needed for an extended rally. Persistent demand for ribs, bellies, and hams, coupled with seasonally declining slaughter in the coming weeks, would continue to provide near-term price support for cash and futures.
Cattle futures markets have been trending lower for nearly three weeks, and if such continues, it could begin to limit buying interest in lean hog futures. Rising hog slaughter levels in the fall may also limit the upside in cash and futures over the next several weeks.
On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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