Soybeans Give Into Pressure at the Close

The soybean market faded off the early morning gains on Thursday, with contracts down 1 to 4 cents at the close. The cmdtyView national front month Cash Bean price was down 2 1/2 cents at $9.66. Soymeal futures were down $2.50/ton on the day, with Soy Oil futures 22 points in the red. President Trump plants to implement an addition 10% tariff on China starting next week. 

Friday’s close in November soybean futures will set the base crop insurance price for this year, with the average so far this month at $10.55, a dollar below where the total was last year. 

The weekly Export Sales report showed 410,878 MT in 2024/25 soybean sales in the week that ended on February 20. That was down 14.4% from the week prior, but still well above the same week last year. China was the top buyer of 202,200 MT, with 172,500 MT sold to Egypt. A total of 215,600 MT in net reductions was reported for unknown, mostly switched to a destination. New crop sales were tallied at 3,620 MT on the low end of 0-50,000 MT estimates. 

Soybean meal sales were pegged at just 176,472 MT, below the expected 200,000 to 525,000 MT range. Bean oil bookings were tallied at 18,363 MT, in the middle of the 0-30,000 MT estimates.

The USDA Outlook Forum this morning showed the Office of the Chief Economist armchair estimates of 84 million soybean acres this spring. That is down 3.1 million acres from last year if realized. Their trend adjusted yield was pegged at 52.5 bpa, with a carryout estimate at 320 mbu for 2025/26. 

Argentina’s soybean crop was estimated at 24% excellent according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, up 7% from last week. The normal category was down 6% (all shifting to excellent), with the poor ratings down 1% to 34%. 

Mar 25 Soybeans  closed at $10.22 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $9.66, down 2 1/2 cents,

May 25 Soybeans  closed at $10.37 1/4, down 4 cents,

Nov 25 Soybeans  closed at $10.41 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $9.76 1/2, down 4 cents,