Chief executives in the United States are more confident in their business outlook than they have been in three years, according to new data from the Conference Board, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. The Conference Board's measure of CEO confidence rose by nine points in the first quarter of 2025, reaching a reading of 60 — the highest level since 2022.
A reading above 50 indicates a shift from "cautious optimism" to "confident optimism" among business leaders. The survey, conducted between January 27 and February 10, included responses from 134 U.S. CEOs.
Optimism in Economic and Industry Conditions
According to Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at the Conference Board, the improvement in CEO confidence was both "significant and broad-based." Executives expressed greater optimism about current economic conditions as well as the future outlook, both overall and within their respective industries.
A strong labor market contributed to CEOs' growing confidence. About 73% of CEOs plan to grow or maintain their workforce over the next 12 months.
Broad Economic Optimism Among CEOs
Executives expressed confidence in both current and future economic conditions. About 44% of CEOs reported that economic conditions had improved over the past six months, up from 20% last quarter. About 56% expect conditions to improve in the next six months, compared to 33% in the previous quarter.
Any Wall of Worry?
Concerns over various business risks have eased compared to late 2024. According to Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., vice chairman of the Business Council and chair emeritus of the Conference Board, fewer CEOs cited cyber threats, regulatory uncertainty, financial risks, and supply chain disruptions as major concerns.
However, geopolitical tension has been a key concern. Despite CEOs' positive outlook, consumer sentiment remains subdued. In February, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey fell to a seven-month low due to rising concerns about inflation.
Against this backdrop, it is better to bet on the U.S. equity market through a basket approach. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF VTI, iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF ITOT and iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF QUAL, Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF SCHB, iShares Russell 3000 ETF IWV and Dimensional U.S. Equity Market ETF DFUS and SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500 Composite Stock Market ETF SPTM are some of the ETFs that can be played to capitalize on a three-year high CEO confidence.
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