Consumer ETFs in Focus Amid Likely Tariff Hike

Consumer prices recorded a moderate rise in October, aligning with economists’ expectations and signaling ongoing cooling in inflation. However, analysts warn this trend could quickly reverse if President-elect Donald Trump implements his proposed tariffs of 10-20% on all imports and up to 60% on Chinese goods.

Tariff Costs for Households: Significant Impact Projected

The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) estimates these tariffs could cost the average American household an additional $2,600 annually, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. A separate analysis by the Yale Budget Lab suggests that the total burden, including ripple effects such as retaliatory tariffs, could climb as high as $7,600 per household, as quoted in the above-mentioned source.

Kimberly Clausing, a senior fellow at PIIE, highlighted that domestic prices inevitably rise in response to tariffs. She projected consumer costs from these proposed measures could equal 1.8% of GDP, excluding additional costs from lost competitiveness and retaliatory measures. Clausing noted these tariffs could have five times the economic impact of those imposed during Trump’s first term.

Karen Karniol-Tambour, co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater Associates, warned that such tariffs could add up to 50 basis points to inflation. “In today’s economic environment, this could be a significant shock,” she remarked at Yahoo Finance’s Invest Conference.

Everyday Goods to See Steep Price Hikes

Imports make up more than 15% of U.S. GDP, and a “universal” tariff policy would raise costs across numerous categories. According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), an $80 pair of jeans could cost $10-$16 more, while a $100 coat might rise by up to $21, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. Low-income households, which spend a higher share of their income on apparel, would be disproportionately affected.

Toy prices could see dramatic increases due to heavy reliance on imports, with U.S. producers accounting for less than 1% of the market. Essential household items like refrigerators and dishwashers would also become significantly more expensive. A basic refrigerator currently costing $665 could rise to as much as $852, the NRF estimates.

Ripple Effects on Domestic Goods

Tariffs could also raise prices for domestically produced goods. Levy of import duties will lead those affected retailers to pass on the price hikes to consumers. Clausing explained that U.S. manufacturers might take advantage of higher import prices by raising their own.

Economists caution that the broader effects of these tariffs remain difficult to predict. “These are bigger tariffs than in 2016, so the impacts will be larger,” Karniol-Tambour said, noting the potential for cascading economic disruptions.

Fed to Cut Rates Slower & Fewer?

The tariff tantrum comes at a moment when the Fed started to send dovish signals. The U.S. central bank has already enacted two rate cuts this year and may put one more into effect in December. But if tariff-induced inflation remains much above the Fed’s inflation goal, the central bank might take to slower and fewer rate cuts. This, in turn, would give a boost to bond yields. And if borrowing costs keep on rising, consumers may feel the pinch.

Stock & Bonds to Slump?

In a rising rate scenario, both stocks and bonds suffer. A dearth of cheap money flows acts as a roadblock to equity trading, while investors’ bond holdings suffer from interest rate risks. Stock values normally affect the wealthy more than the middle class, but many ordinary Americans own stocks in retirement plans, and the direction of 401(k) plans impacts consumer confidence. So, a downbeat investing backdrop would cut back on Americans’ portfolio returns.

Will U.S. Jobs be Under Pressure?

It is expected that the United States won’t be spared from retaliation. While U.S. tariffs would increase the price of domestic products, trade partners’ tit-for-tat tariffs are likely to cut down on sales. To restore profitability, American corporations may choose to lay off and hurt U.S. job markets and consumers.

ETFs in Focus

Against this backdrop, below we highlight a few consumer staples ETFs that have been rallying over the past week (as of Nov. 14, 2024). These include AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF EATZ, VegTech Plant-based Innovation & Climate ETF EATV, Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Staples ETF PSCC, Invesco Dorsey Wright Consumer Staples Momentum ETF PSL and Invesco Food & Beverage ETF PBJ which have returned in the range of 5% to 3.7%, respectively.

Consumer discretionary ETFs like Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF VCR and Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund XLY have also returned about 7% past week (as of Nov. 14, 2024). But if Trump tariff takes an ugly shape, investors should keep a tab on these ETFs.

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