How will Screwworm Impact Cattle Prices?

A May 12, 2026, Barchart article on animal proteins concluded with the following:

Buying beef or hog futures amid price weakness could be optimal over the coming weeks as meat prices move into the peak demand season. However, futures prices will begin to reflect the offseason during the heart of summer as they shift focus to the supply-and-demand fundamentals post-September.

While live and feeder cattle futures remain in long-term bullish trends, the discovery of screwworm cases in Texas could impact prices over the coming weeks and months. 

The bullish trend in live and feeder cattle remains intact

The continuous CME live cattle futures contract has been in a bullish trend for just over six years. 

Live cattle futures have made higher lows and higher highs since reaching a pandemic-inspired low of 76.60 cents per pound in April 2020. The most recent May 2026 all-time high was $2.56625 per pound. While live cattle futures pulled back to the $2.47 level in June 2026, the long-term bullish trend remains firmly intact. 

The continuous CME feeder cattle futures contract has also been in an over six-year bullish trend. 

Feeder cattle futures have made higher lows and higher highs since reaching a pandemic-inspired low of $1.03625 per pound in April 2020. The most recent October 2025 all-time high was $3.8280 per pound. While feeder cattle futures pulled back to just under the $3.70 level on June 22, 2026, the long-term bullish trend remains firmly intact. 

Live cattle futures moved 3.35 times higher from the 2020 low to the record high, while feeder cattle futures moved nearly 2.8 times higher. 

The cattle market’s reaction to the mad cow outbreak in late 2003

In December 2003, the first U.S. case of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BCE), or “mad cow disease,” caused cattle futures to plunge. 

The monthly continuous live cattle futures chart shows that beef futures fell 28.3% from a high of 99.30 cents per pound in November 2003 to 71.175 cents per pound in December 2003. 

Feeder cattle futures plunged 26.7% from $1.07075 in October 2003 to the December 2003 low of 78.50 cents per pound. 

Consumer panic caused beef demand to drop, sending prices lower. 

The screwworm case in Texas in June 2023 could impact prices

The latest animal disease affecting cattle markets has had the opposite impact on prices. 

Screwworm, or Cochliomyia hominivorax, in cattle is a parasitic fly pest whose larvae burrow into and eat the living flesh of warm-blooded animals. While screwworm is destructive to livestock, it is not a food safety issue. A recent article on beefmagzine.com stated:

Long term, the incidence of New World screwworm in the US is bullish for the cattle market, as it will only tighten an already tight supply. The cow-calf sector is likely most at risk, particularly in the Southern US. Feedlots have enough eyes on animals to identify and treat any infestation in a timely manner; this is often not the case with cow-calf operations. Particularly, as cows are calving, both the cow and their calf are very vulnerable to screwworm infestations with fresh navels on the calves and the impact of calving on the cow's reproductive tract. There will likely be some mortality in young calves, and there could be some impact on cows that render them not reproductively viable in the future. In addition, producers will have to spend more money on veterinary care and treatments, which eats into profit margins. They are also less likely to spend a lot of money on bred heifers or cows to expand the herd when there are increased health risks. All this suggests supplies remain tight, and it likely kicks the can down the road on any meaningful herd rebuilding.

The beef market was tight heading into the recent screwworm reports, which will only slow herd rebuilding and keep supply concerns ongoing. 

The June WASDE raised Q2 beef prices, but left 2027 prices unchanged

On June 11, 2026, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report. The June WASDE told the beef market:

The USDA confirmed the discovery of New World screwworm (NWS) in a calf in Texas on June 3, 2026. Subsequently, additional cases have been identified in livestock and pets within the United States. In response to these NWS cases, the USDA and local state officials have implemented actions to contain and monitor the movement of the pest, including quarantines and movement controls of livestock in affected areas. Forecasts in this report reflect cases known and policies implemented at the time of publication.

The USDA confirmed the discovery of New World screwworm (NWS) in a calf in Texas on June 3, 2026. Subsequently, additional cases have been identified in livestock and pets within the United States. In response to these NWS cases, the USDA and local state officials have implemented actions to contain and monitor the movement of the pest, including quarantines and movement controls of livestock in affected areas. Forecasts in this report reflect cases known and policies implemented at the time of publication.

For 2027, beef production is raised, as increased feedlot placements and reduced marketings in 2026 will result in more fed cattle available for slaughter in 2027.

Beef exports are lowered in the second quarter of 2026 based on recent trade data but are unchanged for the remainder of the year. Reduced beef exports are carried into 2027. Beef imports are unchanged for 2026 and 2027.

Cattle prices are raised for the second quarter of 2026 based on strong prices during the month of May but remain unchanged for the remainder of the year and into 2027.

Source: USDA June WASDE Report

The bottom line is that the cattle market remains tight, the market is in the heart of the 2026 grilling season, and the trend remains convincingly higher. 

Levels to watch in live and feeder cattle futures over the coming weeks

August live cattle futures are in a sideways trend with a bullish bias in 2026. 

The daily continuous live cattle futures chart shows that technical support is at the June 4 low of $2.33975 and the March 12 low of $2.26750 per pound. Technical resistance is at the May 1 record high of $2.56625 per pound.

The daily continuous feeder cattle futures chart shows that technical support is at the June 4 and 2026 low of $3.35950 per pound. Technical resistance is at the May 1 high of $3.79450 and the October 14, 2025, record high of $3.8280 per pound.

For over six years, buying cattle futures on price weakness has been optimal, and I expect that trend to continue.