Will Beef and Pork Futures Rally as the 2026 Grilling Season Arrives?

The offseason for meat consumption began in September 2025 after the Labor Day weekend, and the peak season will begin later this month during the Memorial Day weekend. Meats are seasonal commodities that tend to reach annual highs when grills are cooking steaks, burgers, hot dogs, and sausages during summer. 

I concluded a March 27, 2026, Barchart article on the cattle and hog markets with the following:

While the animal protein futures markets face bullish and bearish factors in late March 2026, the odds continue to favor higher prices during the 2026 peak grilling season. However, when the grills return to storage in early September, higher prices could lead to a significant seasonal selloff. Expect lots of volatility in the live and feeder cattle and lean hog futures markets over the coming weeks and months.  

Cattle and hog futures have moved higher since late March, and higher highs could be on the horizon. 

Live cattle rally to a new record high
The bull market in live cattle futures, no pun intended, began in April 2020 when the beef futures reached a pandemic-inspired low of 76.60 cents per pound. Live cattle futures moved 4.93% higher in Q1 2026, and were 4.41% higher on the June futures contract in April 2026. 

The monthly chart shows that live cattle futures have been in a steep bullish trend over the past six years, rising to the latest record high of $2.56625 per pound in May 2026, with the 2026 peak grilling season starting at the end of this month. Live cattle futures were 3.35 times higher than the 2020 low at the most recent high. 

Feeders are near the high

The bull market in feeder cattle futures also began in April 2020 when the beef futures reached a pandemic-inspired low of $1.03625 per pound. Feeder cattle futures moved 6.89% higher in Q1 2026, and were 2.50% higher on the August futures contract in April 2026.

The monthly chart shows that feeder cattle futures have been in the same steep bullish trend over the past six years, rising to the latest record high of $3.8280 per pound in October 2025, with the 2026 peak grilling season starting at the end of this month. Feeder cattle futures were nearly 3.7 times higher than the 2020 low at the most recent high. At just above $3.66 per pound in May 2026, feeder cattle futures remain within striking distance of the October 2025 high as the peak demand season gets underway. 

Hog futures are trending higher

Lean futures reached a pandemic-inspired low of 41.50 cents per pound in April 2020 when cattle futures also reached their lows. Lean hog futures moved 6.26% higher in Q1 2026, but moved 2.64% lower on the June futures contract in April 2026.

While cattle futures have moved progressively higher, the lean hog futures have reflected seasonal strength and weakness over the past years.

The monthly lean hogs futures chart highlights seasonal price action over the past years, but the price action shows a bullish bias, with higher seasonal lows in 2024 and 2025. 

Levels to watch in the hogs

CME lean hog futures for June 2026 delivery were trading around the $1 per pound level in May 2026. 

The weekly continuous contract chart shows that the first technical resistance level in the pork futures is at the March 2026 high of $1.10175 per pound. Above there, the next target is the June 2025 high of $1.13375 per pound. While live cattle traded to record highs in May 2026, and feeders in October 2025, the all-time high in lean hog futures was at the March 2014 high of $1.33425 per pound, which is the ultimate upside target. 

Buying on dips is likely to be optimal

Inflationary pressures, increased production costs, tariffs, steady demand, and consolidation in meatpacking companies have caused beef prices to soar and pork prices to rise in a bullish seasonal pattern. The economic factors are likely to continue, given the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East and high energy prices. Moreover, beef and pork futures are moving into months when seasonal demand supports prices and tends to push them to annual highs. Therefore, any pullback in May could be a buying opportunity. 

There are no ETFs that track beef or pork prices. Unfortunately, the COW ETF ceased trading in June 2023. 

The CME offers futures and futures options on live cattle, feeder cattle, and the lean hog markets. The futures require futures trading accounts and involve margin payments that create leverage. Buying beef or hog futures amid price weakness could be optimal over the coming weeks as meat prices move into the peak demand season. However, futures prices will begin to reflect the offseason during the heart of summer as they shift focus to the supply-and-demand fundamentals post-September.