Where are Meats Heading as the 2026 Grilling Season Approaches?

Cattle prices are heading into the 2026 grilling season near record highs, while the lead hog futures have been choppy, reflecting seasonal demand dynamics. The last time I addressed the meat futures on Barchart was on January 8, 2026, when I concluded with the following:

As cattle and hog futures markets will remain in the demand offseason from January through March, prices could experience downside pressure. However, any significant selloffs could be buying opportunities for the 2026 peak grilling season, which begins on Memorial Day in late May and runs through Labor Day in early September. 

Other factors that may impact meat futures include rising production costs due to inflationary pressures, grain and oilseed prices over the coming months, which are critical animal feed inputs, and U.S. tariffs on worldwide trading partners that produce and consume beef and pork.

I would be a buyer of cattle and hog futures on any significant declines over the coming months.    

Nearby live and feeder cattle futures were trading at $2.36625 and $3.59025 per pound, respectively, on January 6. Prices were little changed in late March. The lean hog futures were at 85.675 cents per pound on January 6, and were higher, as the grilling season is on the horizon. 

The live cattle futures remain in a bullish trend

While live cattle futures prices for nearby delivery have come down since early January, they remain in a long-term bullish trend. 

The monthly continuous live cattle futures chart shows that the fat cattle futures have made higher lows and higher highs since the April 2020 pandemic-inspired low. Technical resistance is at the October 2025 all-time high of $2.4830, with support at the November 2025 low of $2.04325 per pound. At over $2.37 per pound in late March, with the 2026 grilling season two months away, the price is closer to technical resistance than support. The trend remains higher, and prospects point to a new record high during the 2026 peak demand season. 

Feeders are not far below the record high

Like the live cattle futures, feeder cattle futures prices for nearby delivery have come down since early January, but they remain in a long-term bullish trend.

The monthly continuous feeder cattle futures chart shows that the feeder futures have made higher lows and higher highs since the April 2020 pandemic-inspired low. Technical resistance is at the October 2025 all-time high of $3.8280, with support at the November 2025 low of $2.99525 per pound. At nearly $3.60 per pound in late March, with the 2026 grilling season two months away, the price is closer to technical resistance than support. The feeder cattle trend remains higher, and prospects point to a new record high during the 2026 peak demand season.

Hog futures have reflected seasonal dynamics

While live and feeder cattle futures remain in long-term bullish trends, lean hog futures reflect seasonal factors, but also have a bullish bias. 

The monthly continuous lean hog futures chart shows that the pork futures have made higher lows since October 2016. Technical resistance is at the June 2025 high of $1.13375, with support at the November 2025 low of 77.125 cents per pound. At over 90.0 cents per pound in late March, with the 2026 grilling season two months away, the price is below the midpoint of technical support and resistance levels. The lean hog futures trend has a bullish bias, and the prospects are for higher seasonal prices during the 2026 peak demand season.

The bullish case for cattle and hogs during the 2026 grilling season

The following factors support higher beef and pork prices over the coming months:

• Seasonality during the peak demand season from late May through early September supports rising demand and higher meat prices.
• The live and feeder cattle futures are in a long-term established bullish trend. Lean hog futures have shown a bullish bias, with higher lows over the past decade.
• Elevated inflation levels increase production costs, pushing meat prices higher.
• Fertilizer shortages because of the war in the Middle East could push grain and oilseed prices higher. Since grains and oilseeds are inputs into livestock production, higher feed prices tend to push meat prices higher.
• The Trump administration’s tariffs have distorted many commodity prices. U.S. tariff policies could continue to cause higher animal protein prices. 

Unlike many other commodities that have experienced parabolic rallies, the cattle price rally has been slow and steady, and lean hogs display a bullish bias with seasonal trading patterns. Therefore, the odds favor a continuation of the current bullish price action through the 2026 grilling season. 

The bearish case is not as compelling

The following factors could derail the bullish price action in the beef and pork futures market:

• Commodity cyclicality suggests that prices rise to levels where production increases, inventories grow, and consumption declines as consumers seek substitutes at higher prices. The multiyear rallies in beef and pork futures could reach levels where they run out of upside steam.
• Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, rising U.S. debt and consumer credit, weak employment data, elevated interest rates, and other factors could trigger a severe market correction, leading to a deflationary, risk-off environment in which commodity prices decline. 

While the animal protein futures markets face bullish and bearish factors in late March 2026, the odds continue to favor higher prices during the 2026 peak grilling season. However, when the grills return to storage in early September, higher prices could lead to a significant seasonal selloff. Expect lots of volatility in the live and feeder cattle and lean hog futures markets over the coming weeks and months.