Corn Fades into Weekend

Friday’s 4 ½ to 5 ¾ cent losses left the board fractionally mixed for the week’s move. Preliminary OI data confirmed 5.8k fewer contracts were in play at the close yesterday, options however saw a surge of +22.3k contracts (+12.7k calls and +9.5k puts). The corn complex’s put/call ratio was had 1.297 calls to each put. 

CFTC data showed managed money corn traders were adding shorts, which grew their net short 4.7k contracts to 265,285 as of the 1/23 close. Commercial corn hedgers added 58k new positions, but grew their net long by a net 605 contracts to 26,504. 

The weekly FAS data had corn bookings at 955k MT for the week of 1/18. That was within the range of estimates, but compared to 1.25 MMT last week and 910k MT during the same week last year. Corn commitments reached 32.5 MMT, and remain 8.5 MMT ahead of last year's pace.  They are 61% of the full year WASDE estimate vs. the 5 year average of 63%. 

USDA’s Ag Attache estimates China’s corn imports will total 20 MMT, compared to the 23 MMT import forecast via the official WASDE tables. 

The BAGE raised their estimate for corn output by 1.5 MMT to 56.5 MMT. 

Brazil will see active rains across the northern 2/3 of the country over the next 10 days. This is being presented as delaying soybean harvest and thus second crop corn planting but will also mean more soil moisture for germination of said second crop. The most recent Argentine crop condition ratings have 41% of the crop good or excellent, down 5 points from last week on drier weather. 

Mar 24 Corn  closed at $4.46 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $4.24, down 5 1/2 cents,

May 24 Corn  closed at $4.55 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

Jul 24 Corn  closed at $4.63 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents,