Beans Fade Initial Report Rally

Soybeans rallied out of the report initially, but gave it all back and then some for midday quotes 4 ¼ to 5 ¾ cents in the red. Soymeal is trading $1.60 to $1.70 weaker so far after the data. Midday Soybean Oil futures are also in the red, though with losses limited to 35 points. USDA left the average soybean cash price at $12.90 for soybeans, but had meal$10/ton higher at $390 and soy oil 4 cents weaker at 57 c/lb.  

The daily reporting system showed that China booked 136k MT of soybeans via private export sale.  

USDA reported no changes for the domestic soy balance sheets, save for the cash price for the products. Soybean carryout stayed at 245 mbu, while the average of pre report estimates was to see a slight 3 mbu trim.   

On the world stage, USDA trimmed soy production by 1.5 MMT, mainly via a 2 MMT cut to Brazil. Chinese import demand was upped by 200k MT to 102 MMT. CONAB cut their Brazilian soybean production estimate to 160.18 MMT, down 2.24 MMT from last month. They still have planted area up 2.8% from last year at 45.309 million HA. Exports for the 2023/24 campaign are expected to be 109.59 MMT (4.026 billion bushels, or not quite double the November forecast for US shipments).  

The weekly data confirmed 1.518 MMT of soybeans were sold during the week that ended 11/30. That was a 20% drop for the week but was still 2x the same week last year and was within estimates. Total soybean commitments were up to 1.19 billion bushel – 16% behind last year’s pace.   

Jan 24 Soybeans  are at $13.05, down 6 3/4 cents, 

Nearby Cash   is at $12.50 5/8, down 6 1/4 cents, 

Mar 24 Soybeans  are at $13.24 1/4, down 6 cents, 

May 24 Soybeans  are at $13.38 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents,