Soybeans Turning Around, but with Tight Overnight Range

Front month soybean prices are working fractionally to 3 cents higher early in the Tuesday session. Overnight, Jan stayed in an 8 ¼ cents range from -1 ½ to +6 ¾.Soybeans closed near the intraday lows for the first trading day of the week. March contracts were the weakest with a 19 cent loss for the day. Soymeal futures ended the day down by $3 to $5.30, despite the Philippine export business announced in the morning. That widened the inverse to $9 Jan – Mar, with March now sub-$400. Soybean Oil futures also closed red on Monday, though losses were kept to 21 points for the front months.

Estimates ahead of the USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports is to see a 2.8 mbu tighter US soybean carryout of 242 mbu. Argentina’s soy crop is estimated to be 200k MT higher to 48.2 MMT, while Brazil is expected to be revised 2.8 MMT smaller to 160.1 MMT. On net the global soybean carryout is expected at 112.9 MMT, down by 1.6 MMT. 

Weekly Inspections data had 1.108 MMT of soybeans shipped during the week that ended 11/30. That was down from 1.57 MMT last week and well below the 2.08 MMT shipped during the same week last year. USDA also added over 1.58 MMT of bean shipments to past reports, boosting leaving the season’s total to 18.692 MMT (686.8 mbu) as of 11/30. That trails last season’s 21.669 MMT pace. 

StasCan reported Canadian canola output at 18.33 MMT. USDA’s WAOB used 17.8 MMTs in the November WASDE. 

StoneX estimated the Brazilian soybean crop at 161.9 MMT, down from their previous 165 MMT figure. 

Jan 24 Soybeans  closed at $13.06 1/4, down 18 3/4 cents, currently up 3 1/2 cents

Nearby Cash   was $12.50, down 19 cents,

Mar 24 Soybeans  closed at $13.26 1/2, down 19 cents, currently up 3 1/2 cents

May 24 Soybeans  closed at $13.42, down 18 1/2 cents, currently up 3 1/2 cents