Bull Friendly Reaction to Corn S&Ds

Front month corn futures are sitting at or near their session highs on 4 ¾ to 7 ¼ cent gains after the WASDE updates. Futures were down by 4 to 5 cents going in on Thursday. USDA raised the cash average price by a nickel to $4.95. 

The monthly USDA data showed a 0.8 bpa cut to national corn yield now at 173.0. The trade average guess was to see 173.5 bpa, with the largest changes from September noted as: +2 for IL, +3 for IN, -1 for IA, -1 for MN, and -3 for NE. With no acreage adjustments made, production was shown at 15.064 bbu – a 70 mbu loss from last month compared to the expected 16 mbu cut. The demand adjustments pulled 25 mbu out of feed and residual and 25 out of exports. Carryout  was reduced 110 mbu to 2.111 billion, as the trade expected to see 2.148 on average. 

The WAOB saw fit to offset U.S. production losses with a 1 MMT increase to Argentina (55) and other smaller nations. World corn carryout was 1.6 MMT tighter to 312.4 MMT. The average trade guess was to see a 1.2 MMT cut to 312.8. 

Brazil’s CONAB projected corn production there would reach only 119 MMT this season vs. USDA at 129 MMT (UNCH today). SAFRAS estimated that Brazilian first crop corn planting is 51% completed, above both last year and the five year average. 

Dec 23 Corn  is at $4.92 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $4.61 7/8, up 5 cents,

Mar 24 Corn  is at $5.08 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

May 24 Corn  is at $5.16, up 4 1/4 cents,