Futures had added risk premium to the Hamas attack into the new week but soybeans closed Monday 11 ¼ cents off the high on 1 ¾ to 5 ¾ cent losses for the day. Soymeal futures were the outlier as the market held on to $2.50/ton gains. Soybean Oil futures were down the most for Monday, having given back triple digits of as much as 2.5%.
The weekly Export Inspections report and the Crop Progress update will be delayed until tomorrow in recognition of Columbus / Indigenous Peoples’ Day.
Going into Thursday’s report day, traders expect a 0.1 bpa trim to soy yield on average at 50 flat. The full range is from a 0.6 bpa trim to a 0.7 bpa increase relative to the Sep report. On net bean production is expected to drop 10.8 mbu to 4.135 bbu on average, though survey respondents would not be surprised to see production reported between 4.09 bbu and 4.2 bbu. Traders expect USDA to raise carryout by 13 mbu on average to 233. That implies an anticipated demand loss of 6 mbu on average as the Grain Stocks had +18 to carry-in relative to the Sep WASDE.
Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $12.64 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents,
Nearby Cash was $12.02 1/1, down 1 1/2 cents,
Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $12.82 1/2, down 2 cents,
Mar 24 Soybeans closed at $12.95 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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