Following a risk premium surge overnight to start the new week, corn futures are a dime off their highs and working 3 to 3 ½ cents in the red at midday. An unexpected Hamas attack on Israel had sent most commodity futures higher out of the weekend.
The weekly Export Inspections report and the Crop Progress update will be delayed until tomorrow in recognition of Columbus / Indigenous Peoples’ Day.
Ahead of the October WASDE and Crop Production reports analysts are looking for a slight reduction to both yield and acreage for a net 20.9 mbu corn production loss on average. The full range of estimates is to see between a 1.8 bpa yield loss and a 1.7 bpa boost with output ranging from 14.95 bbu to 15.28 bbu. Domestic ending stocks are anticipated to come down by 73 mbu to 2.148 bbu. At the average of estimates, that would carry a net demand loss with the 68 mbu tighter carry-in and the projected 20.9 mbu lighter production.
BAGE reported corn planting advanced 6.6% points to 13.9% complete as of 10/5. They maintained their expected area as 7.3m HA for the Argentine crop (vs. 6.7 million HA a year ago). Coceral dropped their estimate for EU grains by 6.9 MMT to 289.8 MMT citing early summer dryness.
Dec 23 Corn is at $4.88, down 4 cents,
Nearby Cash is at $4.55 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents,
Mar 24 Corn is at $5.03 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents,
May 24 Corn is at $5.12, down 3 1/4 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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