Are Wall Street Analysts Predicting Tractor Supply Company Stock Will Climb or Sink?

Brentwood, Tennessee-based Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company has a market cap of $16.3 billion and provides various merchandise, including livestock and equine feed and equipment, poultry, fencing, sprayers, chemicals, and more.

TSCO shares have lagged behind the broader market over the past year, declined 39.6% compared to the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) 24.5% surge. Moreover, in 2026, the stock has fallen nearly 37.6%, underperforming the SPX’s 8% rise as well.     

Focusing on its industry benchmark, the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) has risen 7.4% over the past year, outperforming the stock. In 2026, XLY has risen 2.9% and has also rallied the stock.  

On Apr. 21, TSCO stock declined 11.7% following the release of its Q1 2026 earnings. The company’s revenue came in at $3.6 billion, failing to surpass the Wall Street estimates. Moreover, its adjusted EPS for the quarter amounted to $0.31, also failing to touch the Street’s forecasts. Tractor Supply expects full-year earnings to be $2.13 to $2.23 per share. 

For the current year, which ends in December, analysts expect TSCO’s EPS to rise 3.9% to $2.14 on a diluted basis. The company met and surpassed the consensus estimate in two of the last four quarters, while missing on two occasions.  

Among the 29 analysts covering TSCO stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 14 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” and 14 “Holds.” 

The configuration has turned less bullish over the past month.         

On May 5, Piper Sandler analyst Peter Keith downgraded TSCO from a “Buy” to a “Hold” and lowered its price target from $51 to $36.

TSCO’s mean price target of $47.52 indicates a premium of 50.9% from the current market prices. Its Street-high target of $60 suggests a robust 90.5% upside potential from current price levels.