Soy Futures Finish in the Black

After continuing lower on Wednesday, soybeans closed up by 6 cents across the nearbys. . Soybean Oil futures also rebounded by triple digits across the front months. The Soymeal futures were the weak link for the day, but closed off their lows on $2.50 to $3 losses.

Analysts are looking for USDA’s weekly Export Sales report to have between 600k MT and 1.45 MMT of new crop bean sales. Meal sales are estimated below 300k MT for old crop delivery and between 100k and 400k MT for new crop. Soy oil export sales are expected to be below 10k MT each for 22/23 and 23/24 business. 

Analysts estimate August’s soy crush will be reported at 167.8 mbu for NOPA members. The full range of estimates ahead of the Friday data range from 161.3 to 171 mbu – compared to 173.3 mbu in July and 168.1 mbu LY. 

USDA’s monthly WASDE report had soybean yield 0.8 bpa lower at 50.1 bpa. NASS had IA’s state yield UNCH at 58, as IL was cut 1 bpa to 61. The monthly supply side update also added 100k acres for a net production reduction of 59 mbu vs. August. The trade was looking for a 55 mbu cut. The demand side lost 45 mbu. That put carryout at 220 mbu, 25 mbu tighter than the month prior’s forecast. On the world stage production fell by 1.5 MMT, and global soybean carryout was 150k MT tighter to 119.25 MMT. 

Abiove estimates Brazil’s 2023 soybean export of 99 MMT, +500k from their prior forecast. That comes off a 157.3 MMT production outlook. 

Sep 23 Soybeans  closed at $13.36, up 4 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $12.87 1/1, up 3 1/2 cents,

Nov 23 Soybeans  closed at $13.49 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

Jan 24 Soybeans  closed at $13.66 1/4, up 4 cents,