Beans Fading into Report Day

Current soy action has the board trading 5 ¼ to 6 cents in the red. Meal prices are down 60-70 cents, and soy oil is fading another 25 to 35 points. Monday’s bean market settled with 6 to 7 ¾ cent gains. Preliminary open interest data showed short covering in November futures, but some net new buying further out. The in-delivery Sep contract rallied 3 cents. Soymeal futures ended the day up by $3.30 to $3.50/ton, and front month Soybean Oil futures were UNCH to 12 point in the red. October BO was down by as much as 62 earlier in the session. 

The weekly Crop Progress report had 31% of the soybean crop dropping leaves as of 9/10. That compares to 16% last week and 25% on average. 

USDA reported a private export sale of 185k MT of soymeal to the Philippines this morning. Inspections data had 310,073 MT of soybean exports for the week that ended 9/7. That was down from 407k MT the week prior, but near even with the same week last year. 

USDA’s Ag Attache estimated China’s 22/23 soybean import at a record 101 MMT, 1 MMT higher than the official WAOB figure. Their estimate for new crop imports is 500k MT below the Aug WASDE’s at 98.5 MMT. The Attache mostly has the draw coming out of stocks.

Traders are looking for USDA to trim another 8/10ths off the national average soy yield in Tuesday’s monthly WASDE report. The full range of estimates is from 49.5 (-1.4) to 51 (+0.1). The average estimate for soybean output is 4.150 bbu. 

Sep 23 Soybeans  closed at $13.52 1/2, up 3 cents, currently up 3 cents

Nearby Cash   was $13.06 3/8, up 5 3/8 cents,

Nov 23 Soybeans  closed at $13.69, up 6 cents, currently down 5 3/4 cents

Jan 24 Soybeans  closed at $13.84, up 6 cents, currently down 6 1/2 cents