Beans Close Monday Sharply Lower

Soybeans were 3% to 4.4% lower at Monday’s close. September dropped by 62 1/2 cents to close sub-$14 for the first time since 7/14. The 50 3/4 cent loss in November futures was enough to flip the month of July’s net move red by 11 1/2 cents. Monday’s Soymeal prices closed 2.4% lower. Front month Soybean Oil futures were 3.8% weaker with 244 to 253 point losses.

Weekly Crop Progress data had 83% of the national soybean crop blooming, up from 70% last week and 5% points ahead of the average. NASS reported 50% setting pods, from 35% last week and 47% on average. Bean conditions scored a 340 on the Brugler500 Index, down by 4 points from last week. Michigan and Wisconsin improved for the week, offset by worse conditions in KS, MN, MI, and ND. 

USDA announced a large export sale for 132k MT of new crop soybeans to China this morning. Also, private exporters reported a 183,300 MT sale of soymeal to the Philippines for 23/24 delivery. 

USDA’s Export Inspections report had 329,518 MT of soybean exports for the week that ended 7/27. That was up from 288k MT last week but below the 595k MT shipped during the same week last year. USDA showed 60k MT for each, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Mexico as the top destinations. The full season total reached 50.512 MMT, a 5.9% lag from last year’s pace. 

Safras y Mercado is projecting next year’s Brazilian soybean crop at another new record high at 171.5 MMT.  USDA used 165 MMT in July.  Some industry analysts are less aggressive on their acreage expectations, due to the strengthening of the Real vs. the dollar. Safras had Brazil’s 2024 soy demand at 99 MMT exports (+4 MMT), crush at 55 MMT (+1.6), and soymeal production at 42.3 MMT (+3%). 

Aug 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.45 3/4, down 41 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $13.97 3/8, down 48 5/8 cents,

Sep 23 Soybeans  closed at $13.70 1/2, down 62 1/2 cents,

Nov 23 Soybeans  closed at $13.31 3/4, down 50 3/4 cents,