Beans Dropped 50 Cents Following Report

The front month soybean futures gave back all of their 15 cent pre-report gains and are currently working 25 to 30 cents in the red following the release. Meal prices are trading $2.90 to $4.20 in the red at midday. Nearby soybean oil futures are down by 80 points at midday. USDA left the old crop soybean cash average price at $14.20, but raised the new crop price by 30 cents to $12.40. The meal cash price was set at $375/ton and BO at 60 c/lb. 

USDA flashed a 105k MT soymeal sale to unknown destinations this morning for 23/24 delivery. 

USDA’s monthly S&D tables had old crop ending stocks 25 mbu higher at 255. The analyst estimates were split between an expected cut and a hike. Getting there, USDA cut exports back 20 mbu but left crush UNCH at 2 billion. New crop maintained the yield at 52 bpa, but lost the acreage from the June survey for a net 210 mbu production dip. Price rationed demand changes trimmed crush by 10 mbu and exports by 125 mbu from June for a net 50 mbu tighter carryout of 300 mbu flat.

The lighter new crop bean output figure trimmed expected soymeal production by 200k tons and 120m lbs for soy oil. 

The world S&Ds were mostly UNCH outside of the U.S. for new crop soybeans. USDA trimmed Chinese imports by 1 MMT to 99, and set carryout at 120.98 MMT matching the trade’s estimate. 

China’s CASDE forecasted the 23/24 soybean production at 21.46 MMT which was UNCH from last month and 1.17 MMT higher yr/yr. Their projected imports were marked at 94.22 MMT, also UNCH from the June report. 

Aug 23 Soybeans  are at $14.46 3/4, down 24 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $14.62 1/1, down 28 cents,

Sep 23 Soybeans  are at $13.57 1/4, down 28 cents,

Nov 23 Soybeans  are at $13.29, down 31 1/4 cents,