Corn Responds Mixed

Corn futures were working fairly tight to a little weaker ahead of the data. Initially futures rallied out of the report with December getting back to $5.20. Current prices are mixed with old crop holding onto some gains and new crop back in the red by 2 to 4 cents. USDA set the cash price for old crop at $6.60, unchanged from April, and at $4.80 for new crop. 

USDA’s monthly WASDE showed a 75 mbu cut to old crop exports, now at 1.775 bbu. That lifted the stocks by the same 75 to 1.417 bbu. The trade average guess was to see 1.375 billion. For new crop, USDA set harvested acreage at 84.1m acres off the March Intentions 92m planted. Yields were at 181.5 bpa trendline, leaving output at 15.265 bbu. The average trade guess was to see 15.14. As for usage, USDA has initial export ideas recovering 325 mbu to 2.1 billion, and Feed and Residual climbing 375 to 5.65 billion. New crop ending stocks are estimated at 2.222 billion bushels, compared to the average trade guess of 2.105. 

At the global level, USDA raised Brazil’s output but left Argentina unchanged. Brazil is now forecasted at a 130 MMT crop, 5 MMT above the April figure. CONAB yesterday estimated Brazil’s output at 125.4 MMT. Argentina was left at 37 MMT. Initial new crop output baselines are 129 and 54 MMT respectively. The global stocks were shown at 297.4 MMT for old crop corn and 312.9 MMT for new crop. Trade ideas ranged 293 – 299 and 295 – 327 MMT respectively going in. 

Jul 23 Corn  is at $5.85, up 2 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $6.17 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

Sep 23 Corn  is at $5.12 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

Dec 23 Corn  is at $5.11, down 2 3/4 cents,