Soybeans are fractionally to 6 3/4 cents higher through the AM session. Beans were mixed on Thursday. Old crop futures were fractionally to 1 1/2 cents higher. May closed up by 6 3/4 cents and expires today – currently at a 37 cent premium to July. There were still zero deliveries vs. May overnight, with the oldest long now dated 4/27/23. The new crop market was 2 3/4 to 4 cents in the red at the bell. Soymeal was $8.70 to $11.90 higher on the day. BO prices faded by 88 to 94 points on the day.
Brazil’s CONAB raised their soy production figure by another 1.178 MMT to 154.8 MMT. That is now nearly 16.7 MMT (12%) above their previous record bean output. Yields were increased by 5 (7/10ths bpa) to 3,532 kg/HA (52.52 bpa). The trade average guess for USDA’s Argentina production figure is 24.2 MMT, which would be 3 MMT tighter than the April figure.
Survey respondents expect USDA to raise the old crop soybean carryout in the WASDE report. The average estimate is for a 215.8 mbu ending stock, up 5.8 from April, but estimates range from a 50 mbu boost to a 31 mbu cut. Global soy carryout is estimated to be 1 MMT tighter at 99 MMT on average.
New crop soybean production is estimated at 4.496 bbu on average. The full range of pre-report estimates is from 4.417 to 4.513 bbu. Traders are looking for new crop soybean ending stocks to be reported from as tight as 228, still 18 mbu looser yr/yr, to as loose as 371 mbu. The average of trader estimates is 292 million.
The weekly Export Sales report showed 62k MT of old crop beans and 50k MT of 23/24 beans were sold during the week that ended 5/4. Analysts were looking for between 150k and 500k MT for old crop and between 0 and 200k MT for new crop ahead of the report. USDA marked old crop export commitments at 50.77 MMT (1.865 bbu) and total forward sales at 1.887 MMT as of 5/4.
Jul 23 Soybeans closed at $14.05 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents, currently up 6 cents
Nearby Cash was $13.88 1/1, up 1 1/2 cents,
Aug 23 Soybeans closed at $13.37 1/4, up 1/2 cent, currently up 3 1/4 cents
Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $12.48, down 2 3/4 cents, currently up 1/2 cent
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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