Beans Fractionally Higher into New Month

Soybeans look to start the new month and the new week with Monday gains of less than a penny following the overnight. During the overnight the board got to as high as +3 3/4 cents (July). The soybean market ended the Friday session with 8 to 17 1/2 cent gains, limiting the week’s pullback. November soybeans were still 21 1/4 cents below last Friday’s settle. Meal futures firmed up by $4.50 to $7.40 on the day. Bean oil futures closed 79 to 84 points higher on Friday. USDA’s weekly B100 cash price for the week was $3.99/gal in MN after a 25c drop. 

There were zero deliveries against May meal futures over the weekend, with the oldest long dated 3/6/23. There were 449 put out against May BO, with ADM stopping 345 for the house account. There were zero deliveries against May soybeans, with the oldest long dated 1/18/23. 

CoT data had managed money firms at 87,208 contracts net long as of 4/25. That was a 45.6k contract drop for the week, fueled mainly by long liquidation. At 87k contracts, that’s also the group’s lightest net long since November. Commercial soybean hedgers closed 57k shorts through the week, leaving the group 164,627 contracts net short. 

The weekly CoT report showed speculative trader long liquidation in meal as well during the week that ended 4/25. The group closed 13.7k existing longs and added 5.6k new shorts for an 86,373 contract net long. The funds were 19,555 contracts net short in soy oil as of 4/25. That was a 3.8k contract stronger net short for the week, fueled by net new selling. 

Ahead of the monthly Fats and Oils report, traders are expecting NASS to show a 15-month high for March soy processing. On average, the trade is looking for 197.3 mbu for March crush. The full range of estimates is from 195.6 to 200 mbu. Soybean oil stocks are expected to be 2.414b lbs – which would be up from 2.362b in Feb if realized. 

Argentina’s soy crop was shown at 28% harvested through 4/17 according to BAGE. 

May 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.44 1/4, up 17 1/2 cents, currently up 1/4 cent

Nearby Cash   was $14.02 7/8, up 15 1/4 cents,

Jul 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.19 1/4, up 15 1/2 cents, currently up 1/4 cent

Nov 23 Soybeans  closed at $12.63 1/2, up 8 cents, currently up 1/4 cent