Soybeans are trading near the top of their 10c overnight range with 4 to 6 cent gains across the front months. The products are also higher, with meal up $1 and oil 14 points higher. Soybean futures closed Friday with 7 1/2 to 15 1/4 cent gains. That reduced November futures’ loss for the week to 40 cents after bouncing off their 100-week average. Preliminary open interest dropped only 225 contracts on Friday, modest short covering that was focused on the May contract. The meal market closed with $6.80 to $7.20 gains for Friday. That left the May contract at a $20.90/ton loss for the week. Soybean oil futures bounced into the weekend with triple digit gains, but stayed over 4 cents in the red for the week. USDA saw the B100 cash price at $5.79/gal in IL this week, unchanged from last week.
The CFTC data showed managed money traders were 110,786 contracts net long in soybeans as of 3/21. That was a 17k contract weaker net long for the week, mainly driven by long liquidation. The commercial bean hedgers put on 12k new hedges, mostly longs, which left the group at 190,682 contracts net short.
Ahead of the quarterly Grain Stocks data, analysts expect NASS found 1.728 bbu for Q2 carryout. The range of estimates is from 1.6 billion to 1.91 billion bushels. Last season’s count was 1.932 bbu. The implied Q2 use off the average trade guess would be 1.294 bbu, compared to a Q2 demand of 1.205 bbu last season.
Going into the Prospective Plantings report, the trade is looking for 88.3 million soybean acres in 2023/24. The full range of estimates is from 87.4 to 89.6 million. The USDA Outlook Forum had 87.5 million soy acres which matched last year.
May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.28 1/4, up 8 3/4 cents, currently up 4 1/2 cents
Nearby Cash was $13.96 3/8 on Friday, up 10 1/8 cents,
Jul 23 Soybeans closed at $14.06 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents, currently up 4 3/4 cents
Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $12.73 1/4, up 15 1/4 cents, currently up 5 3/4 cents
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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