Wheats Bouncing so far for Friday

The midday wheat trade has futures working in the black for Friday. CBT futures are up 3 to 5 1/2 cents across the front months. KC is up by double digits with gains of as much as 14 1/4 cents. MPLS is 7 1/2 to 11 1/4 cents higher. 

The latest CoT report had CBT SRW spec traders sitting on a 100,636 contract net short as of 3/7. That was a 9k contract stronger net short through the week. Managed money firms had flipped back to net short in KC wheat and MPLS wheat through the week that ended 3/9. For HRW that left the specs at a 10,420 contract net short and HRS spec traders were 3,514 contracts net short. 

The 7-day QPF from NOAA shows at least 1” of accumulated precip for the entirety of the ECB, and 0.25” to 1” for the HRS region. Texas will also catch some rains in the South and East, but notably the HRW areas of S.W. NE, E. CO, W. KS, W. OK, and N.W. TX will all remain dry over the coming week. 

The International Grains Council raised their expected old crop production by 5 MMT from Feb to 801 MMT. That lifted their expected old crop carryover by 4 to 286 MMT. Their initial new crop global numbers have a 787 MMT crop and a 279 MMT carryout. 

USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 336,672 MT of wheat was sold for export during the week that ended 3/9. The weekly data had 17.738 MMT of old crop wheat commitments as of 3/9. That is still 5.3% behind last year’s pace. 

Egypt’s GASC reportedly booked 120k MT of Ukrainian wheat via tender. 

FranceAgriMer estimates 22/23 ending stocks at 2.51 MMT, up from their prior 2.47 MMT estimate. 

May 23 CBOT Wheat  is at $7.04 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents,

Jul 23 CBOT Wheat  is at $7.14, up 5 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $6.51 3/4, up 5 1/2 cents,

May 23 KCBT Wheat  is at $8.32 3/4, up 13 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $7.94 1/4, up 13 cents,

May 23 MGEX Wheat  is at $8.58 3/4, up 9 3/4 cents,