Soybeans Continue Lower through Midday

Soybean prices are another 3 1/4 to 8 3/4 cents lower at midday. May was down by 11 1/4 cents earlier in the session. Soymeal futures are working $3.30 to $4.50/ton in the red so far. BO is up at midday with 1% to 1.4% gains. 

An Allendale survey of producers has national 23/24 soybean acres at 87.768 million, compared to the Feb Outlook Forum’s 87.5m initial forecast. 

The IGC cut production to 370 MMT, with carryout down 3 MMT from February at 46 MMT.  Their initial new crop production estimate is up 29 MMT at 399 MMT, with stocks growing 10 MMT to 56 MMT. 

USDA Weekly Export Sales data had 665k MT of old crop soybean sales for the week that ended 3/9. That was at the upper end of the range of estimates and was a 6-wk high. Old crop exports came in at 773k MT for the week, bringing the season’s total to 42.839 MMT (1.574 bbu). Outstanding sales were 6.496 MMT for a total old crop commitment of 49.335 MMT (1.813 bbu). Last year’s commitments were 53.624 MMT (1.970 bbu) at the time and the WASDE forecast is for 54.84 MMT (2.015 bbu). 

For the products, FAS reported 220k MT of 22/23 and 35k MT of 23/24 meal sales, and 3,869 MT of 22/23 oil sales. For soymeal, sales were down 32% wk/wk but inline with estimates. Soymeal commitments were 8.265 MMT as of 3/9, compared to the 12.43 MMT WASDE estimate and 8.792 MMT last year. 

Paranagua port authorities cited 900k MT of soybeans were shipped in Jan and Feb from Brazil’s Paranagua port. That is 50% lower than the first two months of 2022, citing excess rainfall and harvest delays as opposed to media reported blockades and protests. 

May 23 Soybeans  are at $14.86 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $14.48 3/8, down 2 3/8 cents,

Jul 23 Soybeans  are at $14.71 1/2, down 3 cents,

Aug 23 Soybeans  are at $14.27, down 3 cents,