Weaker Wheat into the Day Session

Wheats are trading lower into the midweek session ahead of the monthly USDA data. The winter wheat futures ended the session in the black, with CBT SRW going home 2 1/4 to 3 cents higher and KC HRW going home up by 1 1/2 cents. Spring wheat futures faded on Tuesday and settled 7 1/4 to 10 cents lower across the front months. For May HRS that was within 11 cents of the contract low. 

There were zero deliveries against March KC Wheat overnight. The oldest dated long is from Feb 22, 2023.  There were 42 deliveries vs. March CBT wheat, where the oldest long is up to current date. 

Trader estimates going into the monthly WASDE report are to see a U.S. carryout of 573.7 mbu and a global carryout of 269.3 MMT. If realized, that would be a 5.7 mbu increase for the U.S. and a 100k MT cut globally. 

Australia’s ABARES estimated the wheat crop at 39.2 MMT, up from their 36.6 MMT prior estimate, a new record output. Russia’s IFX reported 40 MMT of grain exports for the 22/23 MYTD. Their full year forecast remains 55 - 60 MMT for all grain.

Japan’s MAFF is on the market for 80,570 MT of wheat from the U.S. and Canada via a regular tender. 

Mar 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.84 3/4, down 11 cents, currently UNCH cents

May 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.98, up 2 3/4 cents, currently down 8 cents

Cash SRW Wheat  was $6.42, up 5 1/2 cents,

May 23 KCBT Wheat  closed at $7.99 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents, currently down 5 1/4 cents

Cash HRW Wheat  was $7.63 3/4, up 1 3/8 cents,

May 23 MGEX Wheat  closed at $8.52 3/4, down 10 cents, currently down 3 1/4 cents