Corn Futures Firm for the Weekend

Corn rebounded into the weekend with Friday gains of 4 to 7 1/2 cents for old crop. New crop prices were fractionally higher on the day. For the week, May corn was a net 9 1/2 cents in the red, but Dec was only down 5 1/4 cents. 

USDA’s weekly Ethanol report quoted the week’s average regional ethanol prices from $2.02/gal in NE to $2.18 in IL. DDGS were shown mostly lower within $30/ton of last week from $235 to $290 regionally. Corn oil quotes ranged from 55 to 60 cents/lb this week, mostly 3 to 4 cents lower. 

The latest CFTC data, as of Feb 7th, had the corn specs at 202,018 contracts net long and the commercials 399,749 contracts net short. 

Ukraine’s 23/24 spring season is underway, as the Ag Ministry reported 3,500 HA of spring grains were planted. Export data from Ukraine had the season’s corn shipment at 18.8 MMT, with all grain exports trailing last year’s pace by 24.4%. 

Ahead of the March WASDE reports next week, analysts are looking for USDA to trim 3.6 MMT off the Argentina corn crop, to 43.4 MMT on average. The full range expects at least a 1 MMT cut, with as much as a 6 MMT reduction. For Brazil, the trade average guess is to drop output by 100k MT, but the range of estimates is between -3 MMT and +5 MMT. 

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange kept their corn output estimate at 41 MMT. Private firm Agroconsult estimates Brazil’s corn crop to total 128.5 MMT, which includes a 29.4 MMT 1st crop and a 99.1 MMT 2nd crop. Datagro has their 2nd crop estimate at 102.91 MMT. 

Mar 23 Corn  closed at $6.45 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $6.40 5/8, up 6 3/8 cents,

May 23 Corn  closed at $6.39 3/4, up 6 cents,

Jul 23 Corn  closed at $6.28, up 4 cents,