Hogs Turning Around

Hog futures turned around after Tuesday gains to start the week. Prices are trading triple digits lower with 1.1% to 2.7% losses. The April contract is still ~$1.50 higher for the week so far. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was withheld for confidentiality on Wednesday morning, Tuesday’s PM quote was 15 cents stronger to $78.12. The CME Lean Hog Index was $76.41 on 2/17, up from $76.09. 

Wire stories suggest the US Supreme Court will announce a decision regarding the Prop 12 California state law “relatively soon”. 

USDA’s Ag Attache expects Mexico’s 2023 hog herd to rise from 12.95m head to 12.56m head through the year. Total slaughter is expected to reach 21.25m head matching the USDA’s official and up from 2022’s 20.4m head slaughter. The Attache had total pork output matching USDA’s official estimate at 1.6 MMT, from 1.53 MMT last year. Imports are seen dropping off 35k MT yr/yr to 1.24 MMT.  

China’s Ministry of Ag suggests the sow herd is comfortable near 41m head, and aims to keep the breeding herd near that level. 

Pork cutout futures are also fading with triple digit losses. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value for was up $3.81 on Wednesday morning to $86.19. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter for Tuesday at 479k head, for a week’s running total of 961,000. That compares to 962k last week and 942k head during the same week last year. 

April 23 Hogs  are at $86.675, down $2.425,

May 23 Hogs  are at $95.525, down $1.650

April 23 Pork Cutout  is at $93.375, down $1.375,