March NY world sugar #11 (SBH23) on Friday closed up +0.13 (+0.61%), and March London white sugar #5 (SWH23) closed down -1.50 (-0.26%).
Sugar prices Friday settled mixed, with NY sugar climbing to a 6-1/4 nearest-futures high. Â A rally in crude prices (CLH23) Friday by more than +2% to a 1-1/2 week high helped push sugar prices higher. Â Strength in crude benefits ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar, thus reducing sugar supplies.
Sugar prices fell back from their best levels Friday, and London sugar fell into negative territory after Unica reported Brazil's 2022/23 sugar production through January rose +4.5% y/y to 33.500 MMT. Â Brazil is the biggest sugar producer in the world. Â
Reduced sugar output and smaller sugar exports from India, the world's second-largest sugar producer, also support prices.  Last Tuesday, the ISMA cut its 2022/23 India sugar production estimate to 34 MMT from an Oct estimate of 36.5 MMT and cut its India 2022/23 sugar export estimate to 6.1 MMT from an Oct forecast of 9 MMT.  In addition, the  ISMA said that it sees India's sugar mills diverting 4.5-5.0 MMT of sugar to ethanol production in 2022/23.
Reduced sugar production in Europe is a supportive factor for sugar prices. Â The European Association of Sugar Manufacturers on Dec 8 forecasted that EU 2022/23 sugar output would fall -7% y/y to 15.5 MMT.
A bearish factor for sugar was last Thursday's report from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) that showed India's 2022/23 sugar output from Oct-Jan was up +3.4% y/y at 19.35 MMT. Â Also, the Thai Sugar Mills Corp last Wednesday projected Thailand's 2022/23 sugar production would climb +14% y/y to 11.55 MMT. Â Thailand's 2022/23 sugar exports are projected to increase +17% y/y to 9.05 MMT. Â Thailand is the world's second-largest sugar exporter. Â
In a bearish factor, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) on Nov 22 projected that global 2022/23 sugar production would climb +5.5% y/y to a record high of 182.1 MMT. Â Also, ISO projected that the 2022/23 global sugar market would be in a surplus of +6.2 MMT.
More Sugar News from Barchart
- Improved Cocoa Crop Prospects in West Africa Undercut Prices
- Coffee Moderately Higher on Smaller Brazil Coffee Exports
- Coffee Closes Moderately Lower as the Brazilian Real Falls
- Sugar Prices Underpinned by Global Supply Concerns
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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