Sugar Prices Sink as Crude Oil Plunges

May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) today is down -0.41 (-3.00%), and Aug London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26) is down -7.10 (-1.70%).

Sugar prices are sinking today, with NY sugar falling to a 5.5-year nearest-futures low.  Today's -12% plunge in crude oil prices (CLK26) is hammering sugar prices.  Lower crude prices undercut ethanol prices and could prompt global sugar millers to divert more cane crushing toward sugar production, thereby boosting sugar supplies.

Sugar prices also fell today after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz is now reopened, which should restore normal shipping flows and ease global sugar supply concerns.

Sugar prices have been under pressure for the past two weeks amid expectations of abundant global supplies and tepid demand.  Wednesday's expiration of the May London sugar contract saw 472,650 MT of deliveries to settle the contract, the most for a May contract in 14 years, a sign of tepid sugar demand.    

Higher sugar production in Brazil is bearish for sugar prices.  On March 27, Unica reported that cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output (October through mid-March) rose +0.7% y/y to 40.25 MMT, with sugar mills boosting the amount of cane crushed for sugar to 50.61% from 48.08% last year.  Conab, Brazil's government forecasting agency, said today that it expects 2025/26 Brazil sugar production of 44.196 MMT, up +0.1% y/y.

The outlook for the global sugar surplus to persist is weighing on prices.  On February 11, analysts from sugar trader Czarnikow said they expect a global sugar surplus of 3.4 MMT in the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26.   Also, Green Pool Commodity Specialists said on January 29 that they expect a global sugar surplus of 2.74 MMT for 2025/26 and 156,000 MT for 2026/27.  Meanwhile, StoneX said February 13 that it expects a global sugar surplus of 2.9 MMT in 2025/26.

The International Sugar Organization (ISO) on February 27 forecasted a +1.22 MMT (million metric ton) sugar surplus in 2025-26, following a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  ISO said the surplus is being driven by increased sugar production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan.  ISO is forecasting a +3.0% y/y rise in global sugar production to 181.3 million MMT in 2025-26.  

Sugar prices also took a hit last Tuesday when India's Food Secretary said the government has no plans to ban sugar exports this year, easing concerns that it could divert more sugar to make ethanol following the Iran war disruption to crude oil supplies.  On February 13, India's government approved an additional 500,000 MT of sugar for export for the 2025/26 season, on top of the 1.5 MMT approved in November.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies.  

India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd. on Thursday reported that India's 2025-26 sugar production from Oct 1-Apr 15 was up +7.7% y/y to 27.48 MMT.  On March 11, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) projected India's 2025/26 sugar production at 29.3 MMT, up 12% y/y, below an earlier projection of 30.95 MMT.  The ISMA also cut its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India to 3.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which may allow India to boost its sugar exports.  India is the world's second-largest sugar producer.  

The USDA, in its bi-annual report released on December 16, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would climb +4.6% y/y to a record 189.318 MMT and that global 2025/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y/y to a record 177.921 MMT.  The USDA also forecast that 2025/26 global sugar ending stocks would fall by -2.9% y/y to 41.188 MMT.  The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production would rise by 2.3% y/y to a record 44.7 MMT.  FAS also predicted that India's 2025/26 sugar production would increase by 25% y/y to 35.25 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  In addition, FAS predicted that Thailand's 2025/26 sugar production will increase by +2% y/y to 10.25 MMT.