Beans Close 2% in Red

Soybean futures ended the Thursday session with losses of 22 3/4 to 29 1/2 cents, and closed near their daily low. For Jan futures that was nearly a new low for the month of November. Products were mixed on the day, with meal futures going home 2.5% to 3.2% in the red, but BO rising 0.2% to 0.7%.  

FAS Export Sales data showed 795k MT of soybeans were booked during the week that ended 11/3. That was within the range of estimates, and did not include any of this week’s large announcements. China was the top buyer with 927k MT – including 594k MT previously reported as unknown. Accumulated soybean commitments reached 33.1 MMT (1.216 bbu) as of 11/3. That trails last year’s pace by just 0.4% - representing 60% of the forecast; also matching last year’s pace. Last year, USDA raised 108 mbu from their November forecast.   

In the products, USDA had 170k MT of soymeal bookings and 2.7k MT of BO sales for the week. Traders surveyed were looking for between 100-300k MT in meal and below 20k MT of oil going in. 

Yesterday the USDA raised the average soybean yield 0.4 bpa higher to 50.2 bpa. At the state level NASS saw higher yields in MO with a 6% increase mo/mo to 48 bpa, a 2% NE boost to 50 flat, and a 1 bpa increase in IA to 59 bpa. The higher yields in the ECB were mostly UNCH from 55 bpa in OH to 64 in IL. On net, production was up 33 mbu to 4.346 bbu. Ending stocks were only up by 20 mbu on higher crush to 220 mbu. 

Globally, the WAOB trimmed production by 460k MT to 390.53 MMT mostly via a 1.5 MMT reduction in Argentina. Brazil was left UNCH in the report at 152. The CONAB soy output projection was raised by 1.2 MMT to 153.5 MMT. 

China’s COFCO expects soy crush to total 94 MMT in 2022. That would be 3 MMT above the last year’s crush. 

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.30 1/2, down 29 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $13.94 1/4, down 27 1/8 cents,

Jan 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.23, down 29 cents,

Mar 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.28, down 29 1/4 cents,