December arabica coffee (KCZ22) this morning is up +4.60 (+2.63%), and Jan ICE Robusta coffee (RMF23) is up +30 (+1.63%).
Coffee prices this morning are moderately higher.  A weaker dollar today has sparked short-covering in coffee futures.  Also, smaller coffee exports from Central America are positive for prices after Honduras Oct coffee exports fell -47% y/y to 55,892 bags, and  Costa Rica Oct coffee exports fell -22% y/y to 9,591 bags.
Arabica coffee has support from Somar Meteorologia's report on Monday that Brazil's Minas Gerais region had 28.9 mm of rain last week, or only 79% of the historical average. Â Minas Gerais accounts for about 30% of Brazil's arabica crop. Â
Tight arabica coffee bean inventories are bullish for prices after ICE arabica coffee inventories last Friday fell to a 23-year low of 384,795 bags. Â
Abundant U.S. coffee inventories are bearish for coffee prices. Â The Green Coffee Association on Oct 17 reported that U.S. Sep green coffee inventories rose +5.2% y/y to 6,378,478 mln bags.
Smaller global coffee exports are supportive for coffee prices after the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported Monday that global coffee exports during Oct-Sep fell -0.4% y/y to 129 million bags. Â Also, the Colombia Coffee Growers Federation reported Oct 10 that Colombia's Jan-Sep coffee exports fell -6.2% y/y to 8.58 mln bags. Â Colombia is the world's second-largest producer of arabica beans. Â However, Cecafe reported Oct 11 that Brazil's Sep green coffee exports rose +7.1% y/y to 3.1 mln bags.
Robust coffee exports from Vietnam are bearish for robusta prices. Â Vietnam's General Department of Customs reported on Oct 7 that Vietnam exported 1.73 MMT of coffee in the 2021/22 season that ended Sep 30, a 4-year high. Â Vietnam is the world's biggest producer of robusta coffee beans.
In a bullish factor, Brazil's crop agency Conab Sep 20 cut its 2022 Brazil coffee production estimate to 50.4 mln bags from a May estimate of 53.4 mln bags as adverse weather curbed coffee yields. Â This year was supposed to be the higher-yielding year of Brazil's biennial coffee crop, but coffee output this year was slashed by drought.
In a bearish factor, the USDA, in its bi-annual report released on June 23, projected that 2022/23 global coffee production would climb +4.7% y/y to 174.95 mln bags, primarily due to Brazil's arabica crop entering the on-year of the biennial production cycle. Â The USDA projects that 2022/23 global coffee ending stocks will climb +6.3% y/y to 34.704 mln bags.
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More Coffee News from Barchart
- Cocoa Posts Moderate Gains on Strength in Global Chocolate Demand
- Sugar Prices Climb on Brazil Production Concerns and Shipment Delays
- Coffee Prices Relinquish Some of Monday's Sharp Gains
- Coffee Prices Slip on Dollar Strength
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