Meal, Oil and Soybeans are all gaining into the new week of trade – BO is leading with 1.4% to 1.8% gains so far. Some sunflower oil products (219,850 MT) appear to be among the vessels hung up as Russia unilaterally suspends their participation in the Ukraine grain deal. Soybean futures ended Friday with the deferred contracts above the $14/bu mark on 5 1/2 to 8 cent gains. Preliminary open interest plunged 29,952 contracts ahead of November delivery notices. There were 440 delivery notices against November soybeans over the weekend, all by Marex clients. RJO had the largest number of stoppers @ 290. Meal futures added another 1.7% to 2.4% to the upside on the day, pushing Dec meal to a weekly gain of $7.50/ton. BO futures ended the Friday session 25 to 51 points in the red, leaving the Dec contract at a net 29 point gain from Friday to Friday. USDA quoted the B100 cash price at $7.13/gal in MN, up by 45 cents for the week.
CFTC reported managed money soybean traders were 8,549 contracts more net long through the week that ended 10/25 to 75,411 contracts. That came via net new buying. Commercial soybean hedgers reduced their open interest by 75,666 contracts (11%). That was their largest exposure reduction since June. More commercial longs were liquidated than shorts through the week for a 22.5k contract stronger net short of 113,354 contracts. Soymeal spec traders extended their net long by 15,233 contracts to 86,030, but commercials added 23k new shorts during the same time. In BO, managed money firms were net buyers of 20,187 contracts for a 95,161 contract net long.
NOAA’s updated 7-day QPF has moderate rainfall in the TX gulf, with 2” for Eastern TX. The S.E. tip of MO is expected to catch some rain as well, though accumulations are capped at 1”. This might be helpful for the MS River level, though the gauges at St. Louis and Memphis remain near recent deficit levels in the forecast through November 10th.
China plans to release 500k MT of old imported Phase One era soybeans from state reserves on 11/11.
Nov 22 Soybeans closed at $13.87 3/4, up 5 1/2 cents, currently up 5 1/4 cents
Nearby Cash was $13.48 ¼ on Friday, up 6 7/8 cents,
Jan 23 Soybeans closed at $14.00 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents, currently up 7 cents
Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $14.09, up 7 cents, currently up 6 1/4 cents
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.
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