Double Digit Weakness for Soy Market

Soybean futures are trading with double digit losses so far for the Monday session. Meal and soy oil futures are also weaker so far. The Friday session ended with soybean futures 3 1/4 to 4 cents higher with November options having expired. Nov soybeans spent the week in a 41 1/2 cent trading range and ended 11 3/4 cents higher from Friday to Friday. Soymeal futures closed the last trading day of the week $1.60 to $4.60 higher with Dec meal $6.80 higher wk/wk. Soy oil extended the rally by another 88 to 108 points in the front months on Friday, which left Dec oil up by 534 points wk/wk and back to June levels. 

USDA reported the week’s average B100 price in MN as $6.68/gal, up 3 cents through the week. 

NOAA’s 5-day QPF hints at some minor Mississippi River relief, with rains expected Sunday to Tuesday in the central US and some of it reaching the river a few days after that. It will take a lot more than this one event to fix the issues. Dredging will continue periodically through the end of the month in problem spots. 

The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money funds changed little through the week that ended 10/18. With 874 closed shorts and 250 new longs, the group’s net position was up to 66,862 contracts long. Commercial soybean hedgers reduced exposure with 29,309 fewer open contracts. That weakened the net short by 5k contracts to 90,790. In soymeal, spec traders were adding slightly more longs than short for a 408 contract stronger net long on 2.5k new contracts and a 10/18 net long of 70,797 contracts. The funds were net new buyers of soy oil through the week, extending their net long by 14k contacts to 75k. 

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $13.95 1/2, up 4 cents, currently down 15 1/2 cents

Nearby Cash   was $13.50 1/4, up 4 cents,

Jan 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.04 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents, currently down 15 1/2 cents

Mar 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.11 3/4, up 4 cents, currently down 15 1/4 cents