Bean Trade Pushing Lower into Tuesday

Soybeans are trading in the red with 3 to 4 1/2 cent losses so far this morning.  Bean prices settled mostly lower on Monday, but within 6 cents of UNCH. The 2023 crop contracts were the weakest. Preliminary open interest data showed short covering in November, with net new selling further out. November options expire on Friday. Meal futures weakened by $0.10 to $2.10 on the day. BO futures stayed in the black by +2% thanks to the NOPA stocks number but went home about 30 points off their midday highs. 

USDA reported 96% of US soybeans were dropping leaves, compared to 91% last week and 94% on average. Bean harvest progressed 19% to 63% complete through the week that ended 10/16. The 5-yr average pace would be 52% harvested. Iowa is 74% complete, normally at 49%, and IL was at 55% compared to 58% on average. The NE soybean harvest reached 76% finished compared to 57% on average. The final Soybean condition ratings of the year were UNCH nationally at 347 on the Brugler500 Index. KS and NC were down wk/wk, while TN, WI, and MO improved. 

Weekly Export Inspections data showed 1.882 MMT of soybeans were shipped for the week that ended 10/13. That was almost double the previous week, but lags compared to 2.45 MMT from the same week last year. China was the destination for 72% of the total. USDA has YTD shipments @ 4.67 MMT through 10/13, compared to 6.035 MMT in 2021. 

NOPA members reported a September soybean crush of 158.109 mbu. And lighter than average trade ideas (161.3 bpa)  In September last year NOPA members processed 153.8 mbu. Soybean oil stocks were at 1.459b lbs. That is down from 1.565b lbs in August and is the lowest since September 2020. The trade was looking for 1.522b lbs on average. 

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $13.85 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents, currently down 5 cents

Nearby Cash   was $13.37 ¼ on Monday, up 2 3/8 cents,

Jan 23 Soybeans  closed at $13.92 3/4, unch, currently down 4 cents

Mar 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.00, down 1 cent, currently down 4 1/2 cents