Soybeans Back Below $14/bu

The soybean futures market spent the afternoon in retreat after the NASS data was released. Futures ended the day with 25 1/2 to 46 cent losses across the front months. The market still holds a carry to $13.93 for July contracts, before seeing a 25 1/2 cent inverse Nov to Nov. Soymeal futures were $3.70 to $5.90/ton weaker at the close. Bean oil futures ended the day down by 213 to 230 points per pound. USDA had B100 cash prices listed at $6.38/gal in MN for the week, down by 38 cents from the week prior.  

Weekly CFTC data showed soybean spec traders were closing longs through the week of 9/27. That long liquidation left the group 9,860 contracts less net long to 94,831 contracts – a 10-wk low. Commercial soybean traders were adding long hedges via 12.3k contract for a reduced net short to 116,394 contracts – a 49 week low. In soybean meal, the spec funds were 8,623 contracts less net long for a 93,545 contract net long. Managed money was shown 58,417 contract net long in soybean oil as of 9/27, a 107 contract stronger net long through the week. 

NASS data showed September soybean stocks were 274 mbu carried into the 22/23 season. That compares to the average trade guess of 242 and last season’s 256.979 mbu. 2021/22’s final quarter usage was implied at 698 mbu, compared to the 512 mbu finish to last year. USDA revised the 21/22 production number to 4.465 bbu, which was up by 30 mbu from their prior figure. 

China announced a plan to reduce port cargo fees by 20% for the Q4 of 2022. 

Brazil’s Abiove said crushing margins have weakened and turned negative  resulting in a reduced daily output. Brazil processes ~202k MT of beans per day under normal circumstances according to Abiove.

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $13.64 3/4, down 46 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $13.15, down 46 5/8 cents,

Jan 23 Soybeans  closed at $13.75 1/2, down 45 cents,

Mar 23 Soybeans  closed at $13.83 1/4, down 41 1/2 cents,