Weak Start for Corn Market

The corn market is working lower coming into the September USDA Crop Production and Supply/Demand reports. Corn had rallied 11 1/4 to 24 cents on Friday. December corn futures ended a net 2.9% higher wk/wk.

Analysts expect USDA to lower the nation average corn yield by an average of 3 bpa to 172.4. The high-end estimate expects a half bushel cut with the lowest published estimate looking for 170 flat. Acreage estimates range 800k lower to 300k higher than last month (FSA reconciliation) for a trade average production guess of 14.089 bbu. USDA’s August output forecast was 14.359 bbu. 

CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed light new buying and light short covering from the spec funds through the week of 9/6. That left the managed money net position 5,012 contracts more net long in corn to 226,479 contracts. Commercial corn hedgers lifted long hedges for a 6,552 contract stronger net short of 456,538 contracts as of 9/6. 

France reported corn harvest reached 5% complete as of 9/5. Crop condition there has declined 9 weeks in a row, to 43% good/excellent. Brazil’s CONAB trimmed their 21/22 corn crop by 1.2 MMT to 113.3 MMT in their Sep report. 

Sep 22 Corn  closed at $6.98 1/2, up 24 cents, currently down 2 1/2 cents

Nearby Cash   was $6.92 3/8 on Friday, up 17 1/2 cents,

Dec 22 Corn  closed at $6.85, up 16 1/2 cents, currently down 4 3/4 cents

Mar 23 Corn  closed at $6.89 1/4, up 16 cents, currently down 4 3/4 cents