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10-Year T-Note Sep '19 (ZNU19)

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[[ timeframe ]] futures price quotes as of Mon, Aug 19th, 2019.
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10-Year T-Note Futures Market News and Commentary

10-year T-notes Settle Slightly Lower on a Rally in Stocks

Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU19) on Friday closed down -1 tick and the 10-year T-note yield rose +1.0 bp to 1.537%. Sep T-notes fell back slightly Friday as a rally in stocks sapped safe-haven demand for T-notes. Stocks moved higher Friday after President Trump late Thursday said he had a call scheduled "very soon" with Chinese President Xi Jinping on trade. The yuan fell slightly Friday by -0.13% to 7.0428 yuan/USD, modestly above Tuesday's 11-1/4 year low of 7.0726 yuan/USD. T-notes recovered most of their losses Friday on dovish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari who said recession risks have risen "quite a bit" and the Fed will "probably" cut interest rates since it is better to be early than late when responding to an economic slowdown. The 10-year T-note yield on Friday recovered mildly from Thursday's 3-year low of 1.473%, which was posted on weak global bond yields. The 10-year German bund yield on Friday fell to a new record low of -0.727% before stabilizing. The 10-year Japan bond yield fell to a 3-year low of -0.250% before recovering after the BOJ cut its purchase of 5-to-10 year maturity bonds to 450 billion yen ($4.2 billion) from 480 billion yen previously, the first cut in purchases since December. The BOJ cut its purchases because the 10-year JGB yield has been trading near or below the lower -0.20% limit of the BOJ's target range of +/- 0.20% around the mid-point target of zero. Friday's U.S. economic data was mixed for T-note prices. U.S. July housing starts unexpectedly fell -4.0% to a 5-month low of 1.191 million, weaker than expectations of +0.2% to 1.256 million. Also, the University of Michigan U.S. Aug consumer sentiment fell -6.3 to a 7-month low of 92.1, weaker than expectations of -1.4 to 97.0. On the negative side, July building permits rose +8.4% to a 7-month high of 1.336 million, stronger than expectations of +3.1% to 1.270 million. Inflation expectations moved lower Friday as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate fell by -0.5 bp to 1.545%, just above Thursday's 2-3/4 year low of 1.538%. Big Picture T-Note Market Factors: Bullish factors for T-note prices include (1) low global bond yields that are helping to pull U.S. bond yields lower, (2) expectations for four more Fed rate cuts through the end of 2020, (3) weak U.S. inflation expectations, (4) weaker U.S. and global economic growth due to trade tensions, and (5) safe-haven demand due to trade tensions, Brexit risks, and geopolitical risks from Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. Bearish factors include (1) the Fed's go-slow approach to cutting interest rates, and (2) some continued simulative effects from the massive 2018 U.S. tax cut.
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